Willy's Free!

At long last, nearly two months after landing a clean open ice hit, Tom Wilson's adjudication has been completed.  His previous 20 game suspension was reduced to 14 games.  By "pure chance", and in no way because of Gary Bettman's desire to push the appeal as far back as possible, Wilson will end up having missed the first 16 games of the year.

No matter.  Fresh legs, and a nice refund of his suspension money.

 I hope he kept a list of the dirty play thus far.  Like Brad Marchand jumping Lars Eller.  Especially that.  That rematch is coming up in mid January.  Can't wait.

John Carlson becomes highest paid second pair defenseman in league history

In signing an 8 year contract worth $64 million, John Carlson surpassed Dion Phaneuf as the highest paid second pair defenseman in league history.

We like Carlson.  A lot.  He is a great powerplay quarterback (that is, he shoots right handed) who lays down precise passes to #8.  His slap shot is hard and accurate.  He is a good skater.  Quite frankly, he is the model of defenseman that seem to be all the rage these days.

What he is not, though, is a top pair blueliner.  Why he is paid that way is beyond me. 

Carlson, for all his worth, is not a complete defenseman.  The coaches recognize this: he has never ranked above third in ice time at evens.  He has a negative career corsi, despite playing in an offensive role for a three time President's Trophy winning perennial contender.  In fact, his career relative corsi is also negative, meaning, the team has better possession stats when he is off the ice rather than on.  The same is true of fenwick, both his personal and his relative numbers are below par. 

The team consistently scores more goals at evens when he is on the ice, with the Caps controlling 53% of the goals throughout his career. That is driven by outstanding goaltending play behind him, along with well above average on ice shooting percent, not by Carlson's positional dominance.

John Carlson is a very good defenseman, and deserved a considerable pay raise.  But beware of the contract year fallacy: players with expiring contracts who perform exceedingly well above career averages often are signed to deals that hamper the team long-term.

Unfortunately, we think this will be one of them.  $8 million for a second pair defenseman is outrageous.

Draft Results

The Capitals made clear that Philipp Grubauer was getting moved on or before the draft, with an ask of a first round pick.  Logically, GMBM decided to add Brooks Orpik, to get a lower return (47th overall), but clear much needed cap space.

Here are the results thus far, along with a brief analysis:

Round 1, pick 31:

Alexander Alexeyev, D, Red Deer, WHL

Injuries may have caused Alexeyev to slip a bit, since the big left handed defenseman with some offensive punch was projected to go slightly higher, or at least before a few blueliners who were picked before him.  No matter; the Caps made a safe pick on a well-rounded player who projects as a top 4 physical defenseman - think Josh Manson without as much of a mean streak.  It might take a couple years, especially with the logjam of prospects ahead of him, but Alexeyev is a solid selection.

Grade: A

Round 2, pick 46:

Martin Fehervary, D, Oskarshamn, HockeyAllsvenskan

Maybe a bit of a reach, as he was projected to be available in the third, but he is a solid pick as the Capitals look to restock the cupboard.  The smooth skating Fehervary projects to be a solid NHL contributor, when and if he makes it across the pond.  While left defense was not a point of weakness for the team, overstrength on defense is usually a good problem to have.

Grade: C-

Round 2, pick 47:

Kody Clark, RW, Ottawa, OHL

The son of Wendel was also projected to go a little later than 47th, but we like this pick.  A two-way forward who plays with grit and tenacity, Clark should fill a middle-six role after he puts on some more weight.  At it currently stands, his offense leaves room to be desired, but with a couple more years of conditioning and preparation, we expect Clark to be a solid offensive contributor too.  He fits a need and plays the part that helped the Caps win the Stanley Cup.

Grade: B+

Round 3, pick 93:

Riley Sutter, RW, Everett, WHL

The Caps dipped back into the 'Dub, this time selecting the last member of this generation of Sutters.  Riley projects to be an agitating bottom-6 forward, who can chip in offensively, and fill in at center if he needs to.  He has NHL size already, but his skating needs work, so we expect some more seasoning before he advances to the AHL.  Sutter does play a strong two-way game though, so depending on player movement on the Capitals, he may get a cup of coffee sooner rather than later. 

Grade: A

Round 4, pick 124:

Mitchell Gibson, G, Lone Star, NAHL

We like this pick.  Gibson dominated in juniors, albeit in a lesser league, and is heading to Harvard to major in government and hone his craft between the pipes.  The Capitals have a long and well stocked pipeline and a history of both drafting and developing goaltenders well, so we expect to see this pay off in due time.  Both Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer were 4th round selections, too.  So there's that.

Grade: B+

Round 6, pick 161:

Alex Kannok-Leipart, D, Vancouver, WHL

The Caps traded up 25 picks to snag another guy from the WHL, this time a RHD (thankfully) with a heavy right hand.  He looks to play a physical game, apparently, as both of his fights last season started with him landing a solid bodycheck (here's video proof of his second fight: http://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/139179).  Otherwise, I cannot find much else on him, so we will just assume he will become an overager in the WHL before we see him make a serious roster push.

Grade: C

Round 7, pick 217:

Eric Florchuk, C, Saskatoon, WHL

Notice a trend here?  The Capitals again went west for the draft pick, again selecting a versatile forward who can play center and wing.  Drafting in the last spot in 2018, the Caps may have found some sleeper value, as Florchuk was consistently ranked in the mid- to high- 100s.  He projects as a bottom-6 forward who won't turn heads, but he shouldn't disappoint either. 

Grade: A

Overall, the Capitals drafted 3 forwards, 3 defensemen, and a goalie, and while they probably could have swung for the fences with one of their second rounders, the team had a solid draft.

Grade: B+

And they're off!

Per the Capitals Twitter handle, Philipp Grubauer and Brooks Orpik were traded to the Colorado Avalanche for a 2018 2nd round pick, 47th overall.

Obvious cap dump is obvious.

More to come.

Draft Day

Having finally earned hockey's highest honors, your Washington Capitals are drafting in the enviable (if only symbolically) 31st slot.  Following this, the Caps have Florida's middle of the round 2nd pick, the original 3rd, 4th, 6th, and Mr. Irrelevant 7th.

Rumors are abound, however, that Philipp Grubauer will be on the move today, with an ask of a first rounder.  While goaltenders have traditionally not fetched top dollar, the thin goalie pool should help bump up the return.  Though, Grubauer is a pending RFA with one year before unrestricted free agency, so either the team trading for him would probably want to work out a contract first, or the Caps will have to do a rare sign and trade.

That being said, the Caps have more picks than in recent past, and if they need to sweeten the pot to pull in a mid-high first, it would be reasonable.  Throwing in the statistically lackluster 31st makes sense.

The Islanders, Red Wings, Hurricanes, Senators, and Blackhawks should all be looking for answers in goal.  The Hurricanes will not trade their 2nd, and it is hard to envision a scenario wherein the Caps trade a young goalie within division, but the Isles draft at 11th and 12th, and may be willing to part with one of their picks if it means solving the Tavares crisis.  The Sens, Wings, and Hawks draft 4th, 6th, and 8th respectively, which are probably a bit too much for Grubauer straight up. 

If the Caps are able to move up to 11th, the top target would be Barrett Hayton, who projects like Patrice Bergeron, though if the Isles trade for Grubauer, I would imagine they move the 12th and keep Hayton for themselves.  Higher, at 4th, the Caps could target Brady Tkachuk, and at 6th or 8th, any of Quinn Hughes, Adam Boqvist, or Noah Dobson would be a good match. 

Traditionally, the Caps have drafted the best player available, and this year we should expect no different.  With plenty of talent in the first half of the draft, and being well positioned to move into the top 15 selections, we expect the Capitals to walk away with at least one really good player who can make an immediate impact.

Kovalchuk Sweepstakes

Most of the NHL coverage after the Stanley Cup naturally surrounds the draft and free agency, as teams look to rebuild or otherwise restock the shelves.

This year is no different.

The three biggest prizes in free agency this year are John Tavares, John Carlson, and Ilya Kovalchuk, the latter notably having played the last five seasons in the KHL after breaking his 400 year contract with the New Jersey Devils.

It has been widely reported that Kovalchuk is only interested in joining a serious Cup contender, and only then, on a two-year pact.

With that in mind, here are the candidates, and a dark horse:

Los Angeles Kings:

Why:  This one makes sense.  The Kings were a middle of the road offensive team, finishing 16th in the league, but once again dominating defensively, allowing the fewest goals league-wide.  Kovalchuk could add some speed and size to an already heavy team, one that was swept by a faster and equally heavy Golden Knights squad.

Why not:  The Kings are tight against the cap, and if Kovalchuk signs for the expected two years, it would severely limit the ability to re-sign Adrian Kempe, Alex Iafallo, and Drew Doughty, all of whom will be free agents after next season (the former two will be restricted and likely due for a big raise; Doughty is unlikely to receive too sizable of a pay hike on top of his $7MM).

San Jose Sharks:

Why: Why not?  The move would reunite Kovalchuk with Peter DeBoer, who coached him on the Cup run in New Jersey in 2011-12.  It would also add scoring depth to an already deep Sharks team, and too much scoring depth is never a bad thing.  The signing could also provide insurance in case Joe Thornton struggles to recover from another injury (provided he signs), or if Evander Kane fails to meet lofty expectations.  Plus, after Paul Martin gets bought out, the Sharks should have plenty of cap space - if they are unable to land the biggest fish on the Island, that is.

Why not: Does anyone think the 2017-18 San Jose Sharks were a 35 year old money grabber away from a Stanley Cup berth?  Probably not. 


New York Rangers:

Why:  Kovalchuk played for years across the river, and it will be hard to dismiss the draw of the New York spotlight.  With lots of speed up front, Kovalchuk could be a good fit, but without another major draw, too much of the offensive burden could be borne by the 35 year old.  However, they have plenty of cap space to target everyone on the market, and it is not inconceivable for the big game Rangers to land both Tavares and Kovalchuk.  In that case, the results should follow.

Why not:  See above.  Also, the Rangers Stanley Cup window is probably already closed, and while adding Kovalchuk might give Henrik Lundqvist one last shot, it is fair to question how much of an uplift Kovalchuk will bring. 

Boston Bruins:

Why:  The Bruins were one game away from the Eastern Conference Finals, and have showed that their core is solid enough to justify the cost of bringing in Rick Nash.  Kovalchuk might be enough to take them to the next level, or at the very least, resurrect David Krejci's career.  We like this fit, so naturally, we hope it does not happen.

Why not:  The Bruins are tight against the cap and might be ill-advised to bring in another veteran.  The kids can play, and while Kovalchuk will be an obvious upgrade up front, the question of whether to go all-in for one more run with Zdeno Chara persists.

Detroit Red Wings:

Why:  The Wings have a ton of cap space, and plenty of draft picks in the next two years, so the future looks bright in the Motor City.  Adding a premier talent like Kovalchuk to the fold could obviously help.

Why not:  The Wings are not a playoff team with this roster.  Kovalchuk would be no closer to a Cup in Detroit than in any of the other cities in this list.


St. Louis Blues:

Why:  The Blues have an A+ top line, and are certainly in the market to bring back Paul Stastny to anchor the second unit.  Kovalchuk fits in nicely on a heavy and skilled team, one which may be stuck at the kids table in a top heavy Central Division without at least one more piece. 

Why not:  If the Blues are sticking to the youth movement, adding Kovalchuk does not make sense.  Never mind - it still makes sense.  He is a great fit in the Loo.

Dallas Stars:

Why:  Joining one of the best one-two punches in the league in Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, Alex Radulov showed that a heavy player can spend a long stretch in the KHL and meet NHL success (granted he played a season in Montreal first, but he was much more productive in Dallas).  But Dallas is in desperate need of secondary scoring after a season in which only three forwards managed 35 points.  Kovalchuk seemingly solves that problem immediately.

Why not:  After giving Martin Hanzal a whale of a free agent deal, the Stars may be reluctant to shell out too much. 

Anaheim Ducks:

Why: If the Ducks decide to move Corey Perry, a fading light, they can afford Kovalchuk.  If not, forget about it.  But does the team walk away from a 32 year old sniper on the rapid decline only to replace him with a 35 year enigma? 

Why not:  John Gibson is due a monster raise after next season, and the Ducks may not want to commit to Kovalchuk's salary demands if it means having to pick between Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg (we are assuming Gibson is signed at all costs).

The dark horse: Pittsburgh Penguins:

Why:  Could you imagine Kovalchuk with Evgeni Malkin on the second line?  Assuming Phil Kessel is moved, as rumored, the Penguins would have the cap space, the shoes to fill, and with GM Rutherford committing to a more competitive squad next season, the obvious need.  But that is a big assumption - why would they move the 7th leading scorer as reliable as Kessel to begin with?

Why not:  Kovalchuk is probably not an upgrade over Phil Kessel.  

The Caps win!

Finally, and in dominating fashion, the Capitals win the Stanley Cup.  After winning a third straight division title, your Washington Capitals ran the field in the 'loffs, clinching all four series on the road, and putting a huge exclamation mark on what has been a heartbreaking journey.  In the end, though, it is all worth it.

This is everything.

Westward Bound

The Capitals did it.  Braden Holtby pulled off his best Jaro Halak impression, slamming the door for almost 8 straight periods, helping the Capitals advance to their first Stanley Cup in 20 years.  Alex Ovechkin picked up a nifty game winner, too.

On to Vegas.

Capitals @ Lightning, Game 7, Eastern Conference Finals

It is finally here.  What we have been waiting for all day, checking the clock, waiting to run out of work like Fred Flintstone, grab a cold one, and settle in.

Game 7.  Eastern Conference Finals.  A chance at redemption, a last hurrah.  The most exciting time in sports.  The odds are against the Capitals, but no matter; all will be decided on the ice.

Prediction: Caps 2, Lightning 1.

Ovechkin and Kuznetsov with the goals for the Capitals, and Kucherov for the Lightning.

And then onto Vegas.

Let's go!

Jake Guentzel will not have hearing for his cheap shot on John Carlson

As expected, Jake Guentzel will not have a hearing for his cheap shot on an unsuspecting John Carlson. 

Had the roles been reversed, this probably would have been called a little differently.

No matter though.  A 5'11" rookie who has to hide behind the referees will get his sooner rather than later.  Further, the Capitals should pay it forward and spend all of game 6 pummeling Sidney Crosby - how effective can Guentzel be without Crosby feeding him layups? 

Win it for Willy continues tomorrow night, in what should be the last game of the series.

Tom Wilson suspended for 3 games

Tom Wilson received a three game suspension for hitting a Penguin.  Against anyone else, this might be one game if anything at all.

When was the last time a coach revealed the extent of an injury during the playoffs?  When Brooks Orpik injured Roman Polak last season, Mike Babcock didn't whine to the media about the injury.

But, in typical Pittsburgh fashion, that is exactly what Mike Sullivan did.  He was a whiner on the ice, and now as a coach, he has amplified his whining to new Pittsburghian heights.

Stay classy Shitsburgh.

Why the NHL messed up the Tom Wilson hit

According to rule 53.2:

A minor penalty shall be imposed on any player on the ice who throws his stick or any part thereof or any other object in the direction of the puck or an opponent in any zone, except when such act has been penalized by the assessment of a penalty shot or the awarding of a goal.

In throwing his glove at the Capitals bench, Zach Aston-Reese should have received a minor penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct.

It is yet another clear indicator of the NHL's pro-Pittsburgh bias that the penalty was not assessed.

Why Tom Wilson should not be suspended

It is profoundly silly that we even have to have this discussion, but the collective whining of worst fanbase west of Philadelphia demands it.

Here are the facts:

• Tom Wilson, a large person, and one of the best open ice hitters of the generation, obliterated Zach Aston-Reese with an open ice hit at the Capitals bench.
• The two players made eye contact, and both braced for the impending hit.
• Wilson made contact with Aston-Reese's jaw, injuring the latter on the play, while ending up in the Capitals bench.

Here is Rule 48 of the NHL rule book:  

Illegal Check to the Head 48.1 Illegal Check to the Head – A hit resulting in contact with an opponent’s head where the head was the main point of contact and such contact to the head was avoidable is not permitted. In determining whether contact with an opponent's head was avoidable, the circumstances of the hit including the following shall be considered: (i) Whether the player attempted to hit squarely through the opponent’s body and the head was not "picked" as a result of poor timing, poor angle of approach, or unnecessary extension of the body upward or outward. SECTION 6 – PHYSICAL FOULS NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE OFFICIAL RULES 2017-2018 76 (ii) Whether the opponent put himself in a vulnerable position by assuming a posture that made head contact on an otherwise full body check unavoidable. (iii) Whether the opponent materially changed the position of his body or head immediately prior to or simultaneously with the hit in a way that significantly contributed to the head contact. 

Here is why Wilson should not be suspended:

Per (i), Wilson clearly attempted to hit squarely through the opponent's body.  Aston-Reese was slow to get his shoulder up, so he was unsuccessful at protecting himself.  The timing on Wilson's behalf was great, the angle of approach was nearly head-on, and the extension of the body upward was not unnecessary - it was a normal hitting action.  Wilson dropped his shoulder moments before making contact and followed through.  The head was not targeted or "picked".

Per (ii), the opponent did not exactly put himself in a vulnerable position, but he was skating low as he tried to beat Beagle to the angle to get up ice.  While this does not excuse head contact, it does mitigate the unavoidability aspect of an otherwise full body check, which this was.

Per (iii), the opponent did not change his head or body position in a way that contributed at all to head contact.  

Our interpretation of the hit is that Wilson targeted a skater who was trying to get up ice, with a heads up shoulder to shoulder hit that resulted in an ostensibly serious injury (we wonder about the validity of the alleged seriousness of the injury) to his opponent.  Aston-Reese saw the hit coming and attempted to brace himself.  Wilson, having dropped his shoulder, followed through by extending upwards, driving his momentum into his opponent in an honest attempt to separate the player from the puck.  Wilson did not stride into his opponent, as he had been gliding for approximately 15 feet at the point of contact, and was otherwise not moving quickly.  

The hit should not cause suspension or even a hearing with the NHL.  It was a clean hit with an unfortunate result.

Update: Wilson to have hearing for jaw breaking hit on Aston-Reese

A Glutton for Punishment

For the second time in two games, the Capitals blew an early 2 goal lead and lost in overtime.

Also for the second time in two games, the Blue Jackets were the big kids on the block.

Coincidence?  Probably not.

Through two games, the BJs have amassed four goaltender interference penalties, have injured two Capitals, and have dominated Grubauer's goal crease.  Last night, four of Columbus' five goals, including the overtime game winner, were scored from 20 feet or less.  Through two games and nine goals, the average distance from the net for Columbus goals is 18 feet- 13.5 feet when discounting Zach Werenski's blue line wrister through Route 66 evening rush hour traffic.

The Capitals, meanwhile, have just two goals from within 20 feet, averaging 27 feet per goal thus far.

In game 1, the Capitals mustered 30 shots on goal, scoring thrice, at an average distance of 40.733 feet.  Of those thirty shots, five were from within 20 feet.  In game 2, the team through everything at Sergei Bobrovsky, somehow managing 58 shots on goal- this time at an average of 40.759 feet.  Of those 58 shots, 20 were from within 20 feet.  Massive progress, for sure, but not enough, as Bobrovsky showed why he is a two-time Vezina winner.

Interestingly enough, the Blue Jackets averaged 45.889 and 45.1 feet per shot in games 1 and 2, respectively.  In game 1, four shots were from within 20 feet, netting three goals.  In game 2, six shots were from within 20 feet, netting four goals.  They banged home their close chances by controlling rebounds and dominating at home plate.

I cannot stress this enough.

The Capitals are getting bullied and are, in typical Ted Leonsis-led fashion, overly reliant on a dominant power play generating distance shots with incredible accuracy.  Washington has scored two even strength goals on home ice in two games.

Columbus has otherworldly goaltending, allowing the ninth fewest even strength goals (2.05/game) while playing in a division that scored the most.  The Capitals tied for sixth in even strength goals scored, or 2.4/game.

If there is any hope of turning the series around, it will come from even strength play.  If there is any hope of even strength play generating offense, then the Capitals need to generate more chances close to the net, and to convert them, while limiting those allowed by the defense.

For that to happen, the team needs to win in the paint.

Edit: Andre Burakovsky is out for games 3 and 4 and will not travel with the team, due to the hit detailed here.

The Morning After Pill

The Washington Capitals surprisingly outshot the Columbus Blue Jackets last night, though your hometown heroes got fewer pucks in the net, losing 4-3 in overtime.  On home ice.  In Game 1.

Folks, we have been down this road before.  An opposing player was able to knock out a top four defenseman unchecked, Jakub Vrana apologists cry bloody murder because the forward with the lowest corsi was buried in ice time, and the Capitals' dominant power play was not enough to punch home a win.

Artemi Panarin delivered a Hall of Fame quality performance, including potting a beautiful OT winner from a tough angle.  Worse is that the Capitals had numbers and good positioning.  Panarin is just that good.

The Capitals were able to jump on the Jackets at the end of the first, led by Evgeny Kuznetsov's dominant skating, to take a 2-0 lead.

What we would like to see next game:

• Philipp Grubauer keeps the net.  He played well.

• Christian Djoos in the lineup.  If Michal Kempny is good to go, then Jakub Jerabek should sit.  He was invisible.  With five defensemen in a 66 minute game, he played 13:17.  NEXT!

• Obviously, if Jay Beagle is healthy, then he plays and Chandler Stephenson sits.  If Beagle is not good to go, then Stephenson still sits, and Shane Gersich (we love how his name resembles our newest SCOTUS justice) plays.  Stephenson was the only player to not manage a shot attempt - Brooks Orpik got 4!

• Speaking of Brooks, he had a hell of a game.  He only played 19:39 in spite of Kempny's early injury, but managed to shine during this time, finishing with a 60.7 corsi rating and a big hit on Ian Cole that sent the latter's stick flying like a helicopter.

• No other changes.  Keep everything else exactly the same.  Minor tinkering is okay.  Wholesale roster makeovers are bad.

Stay tuned for Game 2 on Sunday.

Playoff predictions: first round

The most exciting time in sports, hockey's second season, begins tonight.  For the next two weeks, the NHL's sweet sixteen will do battle for the chance to advance to the second round, that mythical but oh-too-real glass ceiling the Capitals seem unable to shatter.  But first, our bold predictions.

Eastern Conference

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New Jersey Devils

It was a mistake to trade Vladislav Namestnikov, who at times drove play on what was the best line in hockey.  J.T. Miller shone in Tampa, and Ryan McDonagh is an improvement on an already deep defensive corps, but the hit to the top line chemistry may be too much to overcome.  Nikita Kucherov, one of the most potent snipers in the game, was noticeably less effective without Namestnikov on his opposite wing, managing only 6 goals in 17 games after the trade deadline.  With Steven Stamkos's health up in the air, Tampa's ability to match New Jersey's top line offense may be muted, but make no mistake: this is an elite team stacked with talent throughout.  Led by Hart Trophy candidate Taylor Hall, who will be making his long-awaited playoff debut tomorrow, the Devils will have their hands full.  Marcus Johansson was supposed to be a key cog, but he has been out since January with concussion problems.  Winning the right to draft Nico Hischier was a blessing, but the team is in the first year of a long rebuild.  Tampa overwhelms New Jersey in 5.

Washington Capitals vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

What else can be said that has not been beaten to death already?  Your Washington Capitals impressed the field, far exceeding expectations in spite of serious underlying problems.  The team was strong down the stretch too, finishing 15-7 since acquiring Michal Kempny.  Since Philipp Grubauer took over the starting role, the team has been particularly scorching, and he was rewarded with the start in Game 1.  But the woes get worse when considering just how top heavy this team is: Alex Ovechkin scored 18.9% of the team's goals; if the Capitals win the Cup, that will be the largest share of team goals since Teemu Selanne in 2007.  A disciplined team can limit their exposure to the greatest shooter of all time by simply staying out of the box.  Unfortunately, the first round opponent is highly disciplined: Columbus was shorthanded just 214 times.  Only Carolina stayed out of the box more.  Sergei Bobrovsky was his usual dominant self, though he took a step back from last year.  The bigger concern is the Bread Man, who controlled play at even strength better than almost the whole circuit.  If the Capitals can jump on Columbus' mistakes, and keep out of the box themselves, this series should be a breeze.  Realistically, this goes the distance.  Washington in 7.

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Boston head coach Bruce Cassidy was a disappointment behind the bench in Washington, losing in dramatic fashion to Tampa Bay before tanking for Ovechkin.  Back in the league for the first time since 2003, he has a lot to prove.  Bouncing back from two straight seasons of golfing in April, the Bruins are the best team in the East, led by an 80 year old defenseman and a generational talent in Patrice Bergeron.  Toronto rode the backs of their rookies last year to a six game defeat at the hands of the Capitals, and they will fall short of expectations this year, as they draw the toughest slot in the tournament.  Auston Mathews was banged up, but managed to score a point per game, and is developing into a dominant center in his own right.  But the Bruins will prove too much for the youngster and his cadre, as Boston wins handily, in 5.

No time to write the others, so a quick dump:

Pitt over Philly in 6
Nashville over Colorado in 5
Winnipeg over Minnesota in 4
LA over Vegas in 7
Anaheim over San Jose in 5

Capitals clinch third straight Metropolitan Division title

With a huge win in Pittsburgh last night, the Washington Capitals captured the Metropolitan Division title for the third straight season.  This marks the eighth time in Alex Ovechkin's thirteen seasons that the Caps will finish tops in their division (previously the Southeast).

What's more is the performance on the ice last night.  Philipp Grubauer's magical 2018 continued, as he saved 37 shots in the 3-1 victory, nearly pitching a shutout save for yet another defensive breakdown.  Jakub Vrana was the backchecker but missed his mark, forcing Dmitry Orlov to take the low man, which left Patric Hornqvist wide open for a goal that even Patrik Stefan would bang.

In spite of that blunder (and many others), though, Grubauer stood tall.  As we have argued before here at Contrarian Sports, Grubauer has earned the starting job, leading the team when the defense has failed- something starter Braden Holtby has not been able to do this season.

Grubauer was snakebitten to start the season, earning his first win (3-1 home win over Tampa Bay) in his 9th game, and 7th start.  Since then, however, he has been the man, with a .940 save percent and an absolutely insane 1.838 GAA to go with 3 shutouts, going 15-4-2 during his run.  What's more: 18 of his 27 starts are on the road, and he has posted a respectable 9-6-3 record; Philipp is 1-3 when starting the second game of a back-to-back, or 8-3-3 when the team is rested.

His even strength save percent is .935, on par with Sergei Bobrovsky, Marc-Andre Fleury, and likely Vezina winner Pekka Rinne.  Holtby has a respectable .915, which is a far cry from the .930 career even strength save percent he has earned prior to 2017-18.

It is worth noting that despite his woes, Holtby has posted a great record against Eastern Conference playoff teams: 12-5-2.  So all is not lost.  However, we have seen time and time again that the better goalie is not necessarily the winner; the hot goalie is.

And right now, Grubauer is the hot hand.  

A Persistent Problem

Even in today's watered down game, playing a home-and-home with a division rival usually leads to bad blood.  This is especially true when one team has something to play for besides points in the standings.  

The Washington Capitals and New York Islanders matched up on Thursday and Friday, in what promised to be a physical pair of games.  The Islanders delivered; the Capitals, not so much.

In 2015, the two played an incredibly physical series by today's standards, capped off with Tom Wilson ending Lubomir Visnovsky's career in one of the most brutal hits we have seen post-lockout.  The severely outmatched Islanders were only able to respond by letting Anders Lee get pounded by pre-suspension Wilson, who was still playing with reckless abandon.

This new Capitals squad, however, has no identity.  No longer do the Capitals have a stifling defense, three scoring lines, and a Vezina candidate in goal.  Beyond TomLineTommy, the Capitals physical response is limited to an 80 year Brooks Orpik, and a cadre of non-fighters who watch their teammates get steamrolled like back in the good ol' Bruce Boudreau days.

Cal Clutterbuck is a rat, incredibly effective at getting under the opponent's skin.  The Thursday match-up saw him get under Wilson's skin; the Friday match-up saw him take a run at hot streak TJ Oshie, who has been dealing with concussion issues.  Thomas Hickey is scrappy too, always playing on the edge; on Friday he rammed Jakub Vrana into the boards well after the whistle, and injured Evgeny Kuznetsov with a well placed and timed slash.  

And the Capitals responded with the powerplay.  It is good to win on the scoresheet, but it is betterto protect your teammates- with talent on the shelf, it is impossible to win.  

At Contrarian Sports, we sadly recognize that the age of the true enforcer is gone.  However, that does not mean the Capitals have to be so damn easy to play against.  What is truly puzzling is that Barry Trotz, a coach well known for not developing youth talent, would consistently prefer to play guys like Alex Chiasson, Devante Smith-Pelly, and Chandler Stephenson 12 minutes per game, while encouraging Wilson to clean up his game, instead of deploying even one guy to provide some semblance of physicality beyond the top trio of forwards.

Again, this does not mean the Capitals should bring in a guy like Joel Rechlicz, as much as we would love that.  But, with guys like Antoine Roussel, Zack Kassian, and Nick Ritchie playing significant roles and bringing grit, actual grit, not repeatedly-get-hammered-and-get-up-just-to-get-clobbered-again "grit" the Capitals seem to love so much, the proof is out there that scrappy forwards still very much belong in the game (there is no sense bringing up Matt Tkachuk, Ryan Hartman, Austin Watson, etc., because they were highly rated prospects whom the Capitals obviously had no real opportunity to target).  

It is embarrassing that the Capitals now have to enter another tough stretch of games, kicked off with a road game in Philly, without the team's second top scorer, who may be out for a significant amount of time.  Injuries happen- but injuries caused at the hands of an opponent without fear of retribution only cause more injuries to occur.

This team has enough hurdles already; no need to add more by getting pushed around and hurt.

A good problem to have

Braden Holtby has put together a truly remarkable career to date, stringing together three straight 40-win seasons and grabbing some major hardware along the way.  This season, however, without a strong defensive core and puck hogs in the forward ranks, his performance has crashed back down to Earth, ranking 25th amongst starters in save percentage and 27th in goals against average.  He has been far from elite at stopping high danger shots, and he has gotten pulled 7 times in 48 starts (14.6%) so far this season after averaging fewer than 5 per season since becoming the full-time starter (6.9%).

While part of the problem comes from having a substandard defense in front of him, the majority of the problem is self-defeating: Holtby's price tag precludes the Capitals from fixing the underlying issues in front of him.  Braden is due $17MM over the next three seasons, with a cap hit of $6.1MM.  His cap hit is 6th among goaltenders.  Fifteen goaltenders have a cap hit of $5MM or more; of them, just four are Cup winners, with Jonathan Quick, Corey Crawford, and Marc-Andre Fleury winning as starters within two years of signing their large contracts (Fleury and Tuukka Rask have won as backups as well).

In comparison, other Cup winning starting goaltenders in the salary cap era Antti Niemi, Matt Murray, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Cam Ward, and Dominik Hasek came at bargain prices.  (Tim Thomas had a cap hit of $5MM).

It may not be prudent to give up on a Vezina winner with Holtby's pedigree, but the Capitals have consistently developed goaltenders, and have a well stocked pipeline.

What may be best is to shop Holtby and use him to acquire defensive help and salary cap breathing room.

As it stands, Philipp Grubauer has the best save percentage in the league since 2018 began.  He is unproven as a starter, but has been hailed as "the next thing", much like Martin Jones and Antti Raanta were a few years ago.  With Ilya Samsonov expected to make the journey across the ocean next year, and Pheonix Copley, Vitek Vanecek, and Adam Carlson in the minors, training camp will be crowded enough.

Considering the potential trade market in the summer, including defensemen Erik Karlsson and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, it could be a big year for the Capitals, if they clear the cap space to make waves.  In typical DC fashion, it may come as too little, too late. 

That's all she wrote

Another trade deadline has passed, and the Capitals were surprisingly quiet.  Despite Alex Ovechkin's resurgence, the smart money says his best years are behind him, which means there is time for two, maybe three more runs before a serious roster shakedown has to occur.

However, with MacLellan on an expiring contract, one would imagine a major shakeup, an institutional move, like the Erik Karlsson rumors that were swirling over the past several days.

But with no apparent Hail Mary to save his job, the Capitals quietly slipped through the deadline with two moves for depth defensemen.

Not that we are mad about this.  There is no sense in mortgaging the future failures to fail again this season.

More to come...?

According to TSN's Bob McKenzie, the Capitals are not done tinkering.  That is not to promise a deal is in the works, but with a roster that is far from polished, a move or two may better position the team to fall short to Pittsburgh yet again.

We cannot envision a scenario in which the Caps make a major move on defense.  With tight cap space, there are only two avenues to cutting a deal: trading Brooks Orpik or Braden Holtby.  While I have advocated for a Holtby trade in the past, and will continue to do so, first place teams do not trade their starting goaltenders at the trade deadline. He would be better moved in the offseason (which will likely increase the value of whatever draft picks are needed in order to bring in an Ekman-Larsson or Karlsson caliber defenseman).

Note: This is not a condemnation of Holtby's talent.  He is still a first rate perennial all-star, and we expect him to continue to be for the foreseeable future.  But his salary hit limits the team's options moving forward, and with a seriously stacked goaltending pipeline, everything has to be considered - especially the haul a record setting goalkeeper should bring.

Which leaves Orpik.  The odd man out on defense, Orpik has had a famously bad season.  While never a driver of play, Orpik's main assets have always been his physicality, shot-blocking, and leadership.  His corsi numbers are among the league's worst (along with defensive stalwarts Aaron Ness and Taylor Chorney).  His foot speed has degraded to laughable.   He is still a fantastic hitter, ranks 5th overall in blocked shots, and he has served as both an on-ice leader and mentor for the two defensive rookies.

All things considered, Orpik's shortcomings cannot be overcome by possession gurus Justin Williams and Marcus Johansson - since they are no longer in DC.

With a stripped away squad, the team's weaknesses are that much more prominent.  The Capitals have been dead last in shots for most of the season.  Brooks Orpik is a major reason for this.  If the Caps can work out a deal, even involving giving up a prospect or mid-round draft pick, to dump Orpik's salary, it will go a long way towards a proper retool.

(We would also like to see either Alex Chiasson or Devante Smith-Pelly traded, and/or Chandler Stephenson sent to the minors.  This team is just too easy to play against, and adding a rat who can chip in offensively would be a minor but effective upgrade to the bottom six.  Stephenson is being underutilized on the 4th line, but is not good enough to usurp one of the current top nine.)

More defensive shuffling in DC

Earlier today, the Capitals lost Taylor Chorney to Columbus on the waiver wire.

The team swiftly responded in blockbuster fashion, acquiring Jakub Jerabek (who?) from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a 2019 5th round pick.

With a very small sample size- 25 games- it is near impossible to judge this deal on its merits, but Jerabek has been a positive possession player on a really bad team.  He also strung together a modest three game point streak, compiling his career to date offensive totals, capped by an assist on the go-ahead goal in January 19th's win over the Caps.

We are not sure what to expect from a third pair defenseman who was unable to stick on a team with a -37 goal differential, but he is probably an upgrade over Chorney.

We grade this trade: C

Another domino falls

Another ideal, though probably unrealistic, target has fallen: Erik Gudbranson has officially re-signed with the Vancouver Canucks for three years, $12 million.  Gudbranson was probably never on the Capitals radar, but he should have been, since he could shore up the defense at a reasonable cap hit.  I guess it is a moot point now, though. 

On to the next...

Capitals acquire defensive depth

The first domino has fallen in the Capitals 2018 playoff preparations.  This morning, shortly following their road match in Chicago, the team traded a third round draft pick to the Blackhawks for Michal Kempny. 

While on paper this may not look like much, bringing in someone to (hopefully) replace Taylor Chorney as the 7th man is an apparent improvement.  With no Nate Schultz to fill in, it was imperative to acquire someone else capable of stepping in in case of injury and to push the current squad for playing time.  Chorney is a serviceable replacement, but has been buried in Corsi and Fenwick throughout his career, despite favorable zone starts and playing for some seriously dominant Capitals teams. 

RMNB, like usual, has a great write-up including a strong analysis of Kempny's numbers. 

The pick going the other way is the higher of two third-round picks the Capitals have this year.  With both Washington and Toronto expected to make the playoffs, this should fall in the 77-93 range.  According to an older analysis by TSN's Scott Cullen, whoever the 'Hawks has around a 26% chance of becoming an NHL regular.  This makes the price reasonable for a pending UFA with a cap hit that still provides flexibility. 

We grade this trade: B+

Interesting rumors abound

Two weeks remain before the trade deadline, and talks are heating up.  With the Capitals exceeding expectations, leading the Metropolitan Conference despite some awful underlying numbers (dead last in shots per game - yowch!), there is certainly pressure to up the ante and go all in for one last run.  One last run, of course, because failing to make the Conference Finals should cost both Brian MacLellan and Barry Trotz their jobs.  However, any moves the team makes need to be well positioned for a future of competitiveness.  That means not trading future All-Stars for two goals in 66 combined games.

Anyone the Capitals acquires should be reasonably priced, should be early- to mid- career, and ideally will have remaining term or is interested in resigning.

With that in mind, here are some options:

RW - Michael Grabner:  It is never easy to make trades in division, especially when the seller is one point out of a playoff spot, but the Rangers are looking to move assets.  A reasonably priced option, Grabner adds an element of speed the Capitals sorely missed against the Penguins in the last couple of playoff seasons.  And considering how shot-starved the Capitals are, adding a pure shooter who is scoring nearly two goals per 60 is probably a good thing.  Granted, Grabner is scoring on a career best 18.5% of his shots- he was averaging 12.5% prior to this campaign- but even matching his career average would land him second on the team in goals.  For a third liner, this is good.  And it would allow the Capitals to finally get rid of Alex Chiasson or Devante Smith-Pelly, two low achieving journeymen.

RW - Andrew Shaw: It never hurts to add grit and a winning pedigree.  I have often said that the Capitals are too easy to play against, which is surprising given their size.  Shaw is one of the most annoying players in the league, who can beat you with his shot, mouth, or dirty play, which makes one wonder whether he fits in on a team that already has a big target in Tom Wilson.  But he is a two time Cup winner who scored triple OT goal in the Finals, so it may be worth the negatives to add his clutch play.  Shaw has an awful contract though, so any move would necessitate the Canadiens eating some salary, which could raise the asking price above reasonability.

LW - Thomas Vanek: The Capitals need depth scoring.  Vanek would provide just that.  I normally am not a fan of adding 33 year olds who are on the decline, but Vanek has performed well in Vancouver in a no pressure situation.  He could slot in as a middle six forward and add another element to the Capitals attack.  The asking price could be high, though, seeing as Vanek is signed to one of the cheaper deals on TSN's Trade Bait Board.

C - Andreas Athanasiou: Sticking with the theme of adding speed and depth scoring, Athanasiou is an attractive option.  After an ugly holdout last offseason, one has to wonder whether the alphabet is long for Detroit, but until I hear otherwise, this is more of a pipe dream.

D - Mike Green:  Probably the most likely target for the Capitals, the former first round draft pick of the Caps (behind Alex Ovechkin and Jeff Schultz) adds scoring from the backend.  He has not been the driver of play that he was through his first 10 seasons, during which he netted a Corsi well north of 50%, but Green would not be asked to do too much as a third pair RD/2nd PP quarterback.  Green is well liked by the team, had the best years of his career in Washington, and recently bought a house in Kalorama.  All signs point to a trade, and for someone who has a full no trade clause, he can punch his own ticket.  As long as the Wings are pragmatic, and take a reasonable offer, we should see Game Over Green adding scoring depth to the squad before the month is through.

D - Oliver Ekman-Larsson:  Another play driving defenseman, this time from the left side, Ekman-Larsson is probably more of a pipe dream than anything else.  However, all signs point to a trade from Arizona, especially as their chances of winning the Dahlin lottery increase with each additional loss.  Ekman-Larsson would not come cheap, but if Carlson's asking price is too high (which it probably will be), then making a move for a defenseman who will hit free agency at the same time as Brooks Orpik's cap hit is off the books may be ideal.

D - Erik Gudbranson:  I already argued for Gudbranson, and I stand by my word.  He is mean, tough, and surly, and helps address some of the Capitals defensive woes.  His lack of offense and discipline is concerning, as are his lingering injury problems, but he can be a good model for Bowey and can help plug some gaps on the back end.  If he can come at a reasonable price, he is a good option.

Cap scratch fever

Andre Burakovsky will be a healthy scratch again.  This is not breaking news anymore.  It is expected.

Is a trade pending?  Who knows?  His $3 million cap hit is ripe to be swapped for defensive help.

We would much rather have the Thunder from Down Under be the 13th forward anyway.

Offsides challenge

Hypothetical situation:

What happens if an attacking team is offsides, but the defending team rushes up the ice and scores?  Can the team that was scored against call for an offsides review on themselves?

The one move the Capitals should make

At Contrarian Sports, we do not often advocate for trade deadline deals.  The trades that contenders make to beef up the roster generally end poorly, with the acquisition either disappointing or the team falling flat, or both; the Capitals worsen the bargain by trading away future All-Stars for sloppy seconds.

But it might work for us!

No one wants to enter the postseason with two rookie defenders.  Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos have played exceptionally well, but it is not ideal for them to eat minutes with Taylor Chorney as the only NHL defender ready to step in.  With the potential for 80 or more minutes of hockey, Brooks Orpik might not ideal on the second pair either.

Enter Erik Gudbranson.

He is big, mean, and surly, who plays a game that Bowey can model after (Orpik is great for this, but maybe a right-shot will help Bowey learn to control breakouts better).  His ice time has been cut - his 17:37 per game is the lowest since his rookie season and is good for 6th among Canuck defenders.  Oft injured, and a pending first-time UFA, he may come with a slight discount, as Vancouver would rather lose him for something than nothing.

Should the Capitals trade for him, he will come with low expectations, but should represent a significant upgrade to the blueline.

With John Carlson playing the best hockey of his career, earning himself a hefty pay raise, this trade may be prudent - so long as the team does not mortgage the future again.

Has anybody looked at the standings lately?

Take that, Pittsburgh.