Braden Holtby has put together a truly remarkable career to date, stringing together three straight 40-win seasons and grabbing some major hardware along the way. This season, however, without a strong defensive core and puck hogs in the forward ranks, his performance has crashed back down to Earth, ranking 25th amongst starters in save percentage and 27th in goals against average. He has been far from elite at stopping high danger shots, and he has gotten pulled 7 times in 48 starts (14.6%) so far this season after averaging fewer than 5 per season since becoming the full-time starter (6.9%).
While part of the problem comes from having a substandard defense in front of him, the majority of the problem is self-defeating: Holtby's price tag precludes the Capitals from fixing the underlying issues in front of him. Braden is due $17MM over the next three seasons, with a cap hit of $6.1MM. His cap hit is 6th among goaltenders. Fifteen goaltenders have a cap hit of $5MM or more; of them, just four are Cup winners, with Jonathan Quick, Corey Crawford, and Marc-Andre Fleury winning as starters within two years of signing their large contracts (Fleury and Tuukka Rask have won as backups as well).
In comparison, other Cup winning starting goaltenders in the salary cap era Antti Niemi, Matt Murray, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Cam Ward, and Dominik Hasek came at bargain prices. (Tim Thomas had a cap hit of $5MM).
It may not be prudent to give up on a Vezina winner with Holtby's pedigree, but the Capitals have consistently developed goaltenders, and have a well stocked pipeline.
What may be best is to shop Holtby and use him to acquire defensive help and salary cap breathing room.
As it stands, Philipp Grubauer has the best save percentage in the league since 2018 began. He is unproven as a starter, but has been hailed as "the next thing", much like Martin Jones and Antti Raanta were a few years ago. With Ilya Samsonov expected to make the journey across the ocean next year, and Pheonix Copley, Vitek Vanecek, and Adam Carlson in the minors, training camp will be crowded enough.
Considering the potential trade market in the summer, including defensemen Erik Karlsson and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, it could be a big year for the Capitals, if they clear the cap space to make waves. In typical DC fashion, it may come as too little, too late.
While part of the problem comes from having a substandard defense in front of him, the majority of the problem is self-defeating: Holtby's price tag precludes the Capitals from fixing the underlying issues in front of him. Braden is due $17MM over the next three seasons, with a cap hit of $6.1MM. His cap hit is 6th among goaltenders. Fifteen goaltenders have a cap hit of $5MM or more; of them, just four are Cup winners, with Jonathan Quick, Corey Crawford, and Marc-Andre Fleury winning as starters within two years of signing their large contracts (Fleury and Tuukka Rask have won as backups as well).
In comparison, other Cup winning starting goaltenders in the salary cap era Antti Niemi, Matt Murray, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Cam Ward, and Dominik Hasek came at bargain prices. (Tim Thomas had a cap hit of $5MM).
It may not be prudent to give up on a Vezina winner with Holtby's pedigree, but the Capitals have consistently developed goaltenders, and have a well stocked pipeline.
What may be best is to shop Holtby and use him to acquire defensive help and salary cap breathing room.
As it stands, Philipp Grubauer has the best save percentage in the league since 2018 began. He is unproven as a starter, but has been hailed as "the next thing", much like Martin Jones and Antti Raanta were a few years ago. With Ilya Samsonov expected to make the journey across the ocean next year, and Pheonix Copley, Vitek Vanecek, and Adam Carlson in the minors, training camp will be crowded enough.
Considering the potential trade market in the summer, including defensemen Erik Karlsson and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, it could be a big year for the Capitals, if they clear the cap space to make waves. In typical DC fashion, it may come as too little, too late.
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