Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Defending the castle

Karl Alzner, the Capitals top penalty killer, is gone.  Gone too is emerging two-way defenseman Nate Schmidt.  Also: Kevin Shattenkirk, thanks for nothing.  Three very big holes that, due to salary cap limitations, will likely be filled internally.

1st Pair

Orlov - Niskanen

Is there any question as to who slots in on the top pair?  Dmitry Orlov emerged last season as a two-way defenseman with budding potential.  He landed the hit of the year, got involved in the offense in a big way (increasing his shots on goal output by 28%), and was rewarded with an additional three and a half minutes of ice time per game.  Orlov was aptly called a "high event player", in reference to his hitting and missing opposing forwards.  The team will rely on him to create more good events and fewer bad events on the top pair, playing alongside Matt Niskanen, who has quietly become an elite defenseman.  Niskanen has become a reliable do-it-all blueliner, playing in all situations, eating big minutes, and leading the defense in scoring.  He could stand to improve his shooting percentage (an average shot length of 50.9 feet does not help), but that is the only knock on him as a player.  Niskanen is solid and has become the unquestioned leader of the defense corps.  Look for this pair to play upwards of 22 minutes nightly.

2nd Pair

Johansen - Carlson

Lucas Johansen will make the opening day roster, skating alongside the longest tenured Capitals defenseman.  What he does with this opportunity will speak volumes.  His older brother is known for his conditioning- problems with which seem to afflict young defensemen far more than young forwards- and we hope the apple did not fall far from the tree.  Pairing with John Carlson is ideal for Johansen's development, as the smooth skating Carlson will be able to continue leading the rush and rely on Johansen to protect the back end.  This trial by fire is necessary if the team hopes to compete this season and beyond.  Carlson will begin this season without Alzner by his side; Alzner, the second half of the Carlzner pairing, had been Carlson's roommate, defense pairing, and best friend for the past decade.  How he reacts will go a long way towards determining how well the Capitals perform.  Should he fail, the team goes with him.  Should he succeed, expect another strong regular season from the Capitals.

3rd Pair

Orpik - Bowey

Brooks Orpik, the elder statesman on his way out, remains an important leader on the backend, even if he will not be relied upon to do much on the ice.  We expect Orpik to eat up a lot of penalty kill minutes, and serve as a buffer while the top two pairs rest, but with his relative immobility worsening, all we can ask is that he limits his mistakes on the ice.  Madison Bowey will make his NHL debut this season, opening the year on the third pair.  Being waiver exempt, Bowey will be given a long look.  Playing next to Orpik may not be the best way to showcase his talents, but it should enable Bowey to develop the physical game necessary to build a long and successful career.

Extras

Chorney - Ness - Djoos

Taylor Chorney was drafted in the 2nd round of 2005 by the Edmonton Oilers, two weeks after they lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Carolina Hurricanes.  Much like the Oilers, Chorney has been a disappointment.  On a good team, he is a 7th defenseman at best, but he remains a cheap option should one of the starters get hurt.  Aaron Ness, like Chorney, played college hockey after being drafted in the second round.  Unlike Chorney, Ness has not made much of an impact.  Entering the season with so many question marks on defense gives Ness his best chance to stick around.  Christian Djoos has a solid shot at making the big squad this season, but as he is not waiver exempt, unless he wows management and the coaching staff, he will begin the year in the AHL.  Losing Greg Smith increases the likelihood that the Capitals suffer more man games lost to injury than in the past several seasons, so there will be opportunities for Djoos to shine.  It just will not be in October.

Monday, September 18, 2017

Making the squad

68 goals walked out of the door this offseason.  14 game winning goals, 2 of which were in overtime.  2 top 6 forwards, gone.  2 top penalty killers, gone too.  There are some big holes to fill, and we expect most of the burden to be borne by prospects, although one veteran acquisition should make the squad.

1st Line

Ovechkin - Backstrom - Oshie

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.  Continuity is good, and in the case of a squad undergoing a massive overhaul, it is critical.  All roads lead to Ovechkin, who needs to score more than his pathetic (by his standards) 33 goals and 69 points.  A career 12.3% shooter, Alex shot 10.5% last season, which, while not bad, left 5 or 6 goals on the table.  If the Capitals expect to win, they will need the captain to convert more frequently, especially given the likelihood of TJ Oshie's own percentage receding back to normal.  The new look, quicker Ovechkin will need to score on the rush and drive play.  That is the only way to win in today's NHL.  Nicklas Backstrom lead the team in points for the first time in his career, and with two bona fide scoring wingers, look for a repeat performance.  The question dangling over his head is whether he will lose significant offensive zone time to Kuznetsov, taking on a role similar to Kopitar in LA.  If so, he will be successful, but that success will be measured differently.  TJ Oshie quickly became a fan favorite, and after two solid seasons in Washington, earned a long-term deal.  Like Orpik's contract, the back end could hurt the team, but this is a reasonable price to pay for a guy who brings it every shift and leads the team from the front.

2nd Line

Burakovsky - Kuznetsov - Wilson

Three guys with something to prove; Andre Burakovsky signed a 2-year bridge deal this summer and needs to show that he belongs in Washington's top 6.  Evgeny Kuznetsov is now the 11th highest paid center in the NHL, behind 5 Cup winners, and needs to back up the contract with a return to offensive excellence.  Tom Wilson, like his potential linemates, had a strong postseason, and is playing to justify his draft selection.  If he is unable to produce at both ends of the rink, he may find himself out the door, as the Capitals may shift away from physicality in an effort to mirror the Penguins success.  Expect this line to get plenty of chances to play together early in the year, as Kuznetsov looks for consistent wingers.

3rd Line

Chiasson - Eller - Vrana

For some reason, Alex Chiasson was not qualified this offseason.  Well, one man's trash is another man's treasure.  Or so we hope.  Chiasson has averaged 27 points per 82 over his career, and has shot from an average of 25.1 feet over the same time frame - similar to Johnny Gaudreau, Sidney Crosby, John Tavares, and Ryan Kesler.  Chiasson will not score like them, but it is always a good sign when a player gets into prime real estate.  Lars Eller was an expensive but reliable pickup, even if he will forever be linked to the goalie-who-shall-not-be-named.  He will also be a UFA this offseason, so I expect another strong campaign, ideally followed by a postseason reminiscent of 2014.  Jakub Vrana is a great fit on the second line, but I suspect he will spend much of the year on the third as the Capitals look to spread speed and scoring throughout the lineup.  If he underwhelms, look for him to be moved, as the Caps brass is on the hot seat and will be desperate to stay employed.

4th Line

Walker - Beagle - Connolly

Nathan Walker will make history on opening night, but he will not be an everyday player - yet.  His speed and tenacity are sorely needed on the fourth line, but Devante Smith-Pelly, Connolly, and Walker (and to a lesser extent, Chiasson and Anthony Peluso) will all share time on the fourth line wing.  Beagle should have another strong year on the penalty kill, and will likely regress somewhat on offense, but he is otherwise a great fourth line center.  Connolly was one of the best offseason steals last year and was rewarded with a two-year pact, so the pressure will be on him to produce.  He is not likely to net 18.5% of his shots again, but with a bigger role and an opposite winger with better offensive instincts, Connolly should match or exceed last season's point totals.

Extras

Smith-Pelly - Peluso

Devante Smith-Pelly, like Eller, had a great 2014 postseason.  Unlike Eller, Smith-Pelly has struggled ever since, scoring 24 goals in 191 games.  He brings great size, and energy, but as a player prone to streaks, he will likely play fewer than 50 games in Washington.  Anthony Peluso represents the game of the past, but with Pittsburgh adding Ryan Reaves, Columbus remaining big and mean, and the relative youth of the bottom six wingers, he should have some limited opportunity to play.  We are not expecting much, but a fourth line enforcer does not need to produce much to be effective.