Saturday, May 13, 2017

A case for Oshie to re-sign

TJ Oshie may have been the best trade acquisition in the team's history.  His two seasons in Washington represented his two best goal scoring seasons, and this year's .82 points per game were well above his .699 with the Blues.  Having scored on 18% of his shots with the Capitals, Oshie consistently found a way to get in behind the defense and into the high percentage scoring areas.  This is important.

First, to suggest that Oshie suddenly, at age 28, became a high percentage shooter, increasing from a career mark of 11.8% with the Blues to 14.1% and 23% over his two seasons in Washington, is shortsighted at best.  While some of the increase can be attributable to maturity on the ice, that stark of an increase is likely due to other reasons.  Namely, Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom.

Second, the NHL is a league of mimicry, and especially given the Penguins success over the past two seasons, there has been a particular premium placed on speed.  However, Oshie is not exactly fleet of foot.  Since he excels in front of the net, it is advantageous for someone else to be doing most of the shooting.  Ovechkin is in a class of his own when it comes to getting rubber on the net.  In fact, since entering the league, our beloved Alex has produced the top 7, and 9 of the top 11 seasons in terms of shots on goal.  He has 45% more shots on goal during that time span than second place (Eric Staal).  Oshie can take advantage of the attention Ovechkin naturally draws and position himself either in the soft spot for a one-timer, or in front of the net for a tip-in or rebound.  He has done a phenomenal job of both thus far, and he would be well served to recognize this unique opportunity.

Oshie may very well be the perfect right wing companion for Alexander Ovechkin.  Ovechkin has drawn defenders to him for most of his career in a way unseen since Mario Lemieux was in his prime.  For an offense that likes to control the puck and cycle, the defense cheating leaves room somewhere on the ice; Oshie was able to exploit this and weasel his way into high percentage scoring areas.  Oshie is a very good hockey player, but without an elite goal scorer next to him, he will draw more attention from the defense, and his effectiveness will suffer.  As far as complementary scorers go, Oshie is in a class of his own.

Few centers make the game look as easy as Nicklas Backstrom does.  His smooth skating, strong two-way play, and soft but crisp passing have been critical to this team's relative success.  Since joining the league, only Joe Thornton and Henrik Sedin have more assists than Backstrom's 540.  No one even comes close to his 247 power play assists; Thornton's 211 (in 40 more games) come closest, and no one else sniffs 200.  Someone as good on the power play as Oshie would have to be a fool to walk away from that.

Since his heroics in the Olympics, TJ Oshie has endeared himself appropriately to most hockey fans.  Having led the league in shooting percentage, he will have no shortage of suitors for his services.  He is well deserving of a pay raise, and will most assuredly receive a sizable one at that.  However, for his sake, and for that of the Capitals, he should remain where he is, in front of the net, banging home gifts from Ovechkin and Backstrom.

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

The Capitals will win tonight

I guarantee it.

This is not the hapless, dough-eyed fan in me.  This is the pragmatist, the one who believes in puck luck, the one who believes in momentum, the one who believes in our time being now.  Our time, being that of the fans, naturally.

This team was built for this moment.

Tonight's roster will consist of almost entirely first-round draft picks.  Two Cup winners with four Cups between them.  Seven defensemen to insulate against defensive shortcomings and provide roster flexibility.  And an energized captain playing on the third line to create scoring depth unheard of in this city.

The Penguins are savvy veterans who have been there and done that, but they are banged up, and are limping into the lion's den.  There is no denying their talent and their coaching, but health will be the determining factor in this hard-fought series, and Pittsburgh is too injured, too hurt to continue.

That is not to say the Penguins will not put up a fight, because believe me they will.  But their fight will fall flat, their comeback will come up short, and the black and yellow will turn black and blue.

Prediction Guarantee: Washington 3, Pittsburgh 2

Monday, May 8, 2017

Offensive explosion forces game 7

The Capitals offensive outburst in game 6 forced this pundit to spring for a disgustingly overpriced ticket to yet another potential heartbreak.

But as a sports fan, this is what I live for.

Barry Trotz's tinkering of the offensive lines has seemed to work thus far, generating two wins in as many games.  Burakowsky, playing with Backstrom and Oshie, scored twice.  Backstrom picked up the game winner en route to being one of two Capitals to win most of his faceoffs.  The newly formed trio of Ovechkin, Eller, and Wilson combined for 8 hits and 5 shots, and despite losing the majority of the faceoffs, seemed to control the puck well.  Kuznetsov has awoken from what was a terrible 2016 calendar year to emerge as the dominant second line center the team has been searching for since Sergei Fedorov retired.

Sidney Crosby is playing hurt and it shows.  Game 7 will be a true test of his character.  Should he play, he may be a liability, as he will certainly be a target of enhanced physicality, and he may not be as effective as the second line AHLer due to replace him.  Should he sit, and the Penguins lose, the Capitals will have shifted the series due to the misfortune of a young man's proneness to injury.

Early prediction: Capitals 3, Penguins 1

"Wars might be fought with weapons, but they are won by men. It is the spirit of the men who leads that gains the victory."

-General Patton

Trevor Daley out with LBI

According to Coach Mike Sullivan, Pittsburgh defenseman Trevor Daley will miss tonight's action.  Considering he missed Friday's practice, this should come as no surprise.  Still, the Penguins rely on his grit, so he will be missed.

Brian Dumolin, despite being hurt in game 5, will play.

One would figure veteran Mark Streit slots in, as the former Islanders captain provides mobility and offense, and is a left-handed shot like Daley, though the right-handed Chad Ruhwedel offers youthful vigor and is more sound defensively and may earn a jersey.

Either way, with Letang and Daley out, the Capitals need to take advantage of the typically lengthy Penguins injury list and pounce early and often.

More to come.

6:08 PM edit:

Ruhwedel slots in to replace Daley, who is still feeling the effects of a clean Tom Wilson hit.  Wilson, who skated hard then glided for roughly 15 feet, was penalized for charging, an attempt by the referees to dictate the pace and physicality of the game.  No matter; the damage was done.

History will repeat itself

As Washington prepares for yet another potential series clinching game, we are reminded that this is not the first time these Ovechkin-led Capitals are faced with this situation: down 3 games to 2, going on the road to face a lower seed.

This playoff series has been eerily similar to 2009, when the second ranked Capitals defeated the seventh ranked Rangers on the back of Sergei Fedorov.

Having lost both games at Verizon Center, the Capitals won game three decisively before failing to complete a comeback in game four.  Sound familiar?

Matt Bradley exploded for two of his three career playoff goals in game five as the Caps downed the Rags 4-0 in a game which Capitals fans got the better of John Tortorella, who was suspended for the following game.

Game six was a physical affair, capped by Donald Brashear absolutely destroying Blair Betts with a clean hit from the blindside in what ended up as his final game as a Capital.  The result was equally exciting, as the Rangers furiously attempted to come back, but fell short in spite of a goal from Marc Staal with 6 seconds left.

I would expect a similar result Monday night.

The 2009 game featured goals from five players, including three defensemen.  So far this year, the defense has not been able to capitalize, which has obviously handcuffed the team.  In fact, since the Ovechkin era began, only once, between the regular and post-seasons, have the Capitals received such awful production from the back end.  The 2009 postseason saw 2 of the 22 goals scored came from blueliners; this year 3 of 31 have come from them.

A physical affair should provide the Capitals with several opportunities on the power play, which we will see capitalized upon in the way of multiple power play goals en route to a 5-3 finish.

Monday, May 1, 2017

OT heroes

Led by Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins, with the goaltender pulled, scored twice in the final two minutes of the game to send this to overtime.

We could whine about the officiating by Brads Meier and Watson, but that does us no good.

It is time to focus on overtime.  If the Caps are to have any chance in the series, winning in overtime on the road to scrape out a win is the way to do it.

If the Capitals win, it is because of Justin Williams.  He has been all over the ice since the opening puck drop, netting two assists and several hits thus far.  Mr. Game 7 lives for the clutch and will live up to his name.

If the worst were to happen, it will be because of Malkin.  It is hard to choose against the hot hand.

The Capitals will win tonight

Down two games to none, having lost consecutive home games in embarrassing fashion, the Capitals will come out of the gates in Pittsburgh tonight firing on all cylinders.  Look for Washington to put the pressure on early, by dumping the puck and trying to knock the Penguins defenders into next week.

If there is a silver lining, it is that the Penguins are getting worn down.  Having blocked 62 shots through two games, and being outhit 78-36 has taken its toll: Pittsburgh, already down Letang, add three more to the injury ledger in Hornqvist, Kuhnhackl, and Hainsey, although the latter two figure to play tonight.

The Capitals need to focus on their strengths, namely puck possession and taking advantage of their collective heft, instead of trying to match Pittsburgh's advantage in speed.  The heaviest team in the East is not going to win many footraces.  Washington was built to take the blue line by force, win battles along the boards, and to slow down and cycle down low.  They are great at winning rebounds in front of the goal, but in order to do so, Oshie and Williams, who are not exactly fleet of foot, need the opportunity to get there.  That does not happen much in the transition game.

At least not against Apolo Ohno dressed in black and yellow.

Washington breaks the drought and builds confidence tonight with a big win: 4-1.

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Second round predictions: Western Conference

With the first two games of the second round beginning tonight, and the magic 8-ball dusted off, it is time to make bold predictions as to who will advance.

(3) St. Louis Blues vs. (WC2) Nashville Predators

The Blues stole the series from Minnesota despite being badly outshot, losing the majority of faceoffs in every zone, and being outplayed.  Jake Allen was the star of the show, Vladimir Sobotka made a triumphant return from Russia to spark the offense, and the Blues made up for three massive roster losses since last year's disappointment against the Sharks.  This goes to show just how finicky the playoffs really are.  Anything can, and this year, did happen, as the only team to seriously contend for the Capitals regular season crown fell short.

Did I mention Bruce Boudreau is the coach?  That explains a lot.

Big plus to Mike Yeo for beating his former team, in dramatic fashion too.

The Predators, much like the Blues, were heavy underdogs going into the series, but their vanquished opponents, too, are golfing.  Routing the Blackhawks, while shutting them out twice in the United Center, was unpredictable to say the least.

Pekka Rinne was back to normal, and the Predators are looking very smart after trading Shea Weber for PK Subban.  Their luck will continue as they look to advance to their first conference final in franchise history.

Prediction: Nashville in 5

(1) Anaheim Ducks vs. (2) Edmonton Oilers

The pesky Ducks, led again by Stanley Cup winner Randy Carlyle, rolled over the upstart Calgary Flames.  This was made more impressive by the injuries to the defense corps of Anaheim, partly at the hands of Flames captain Mark Giordano.  Fortunately for Ducks fans, the team stood up for their defenseman (unlike the Capitals who chose to take cheapshots and hand away powerplays while never addressing the issue), and rallied around each other and sent the Flames to the links early.

Connor McDavid is the best player in the league.  He skates like Bobby Orr, stickhandles like Alexei Kovalev, and picks corners like Pavel Bure.  He also makes everyone around him better, to which Pat Maroon and his expected pay raise can attest.  McDavid is the difference maker in every game, and it is hard to pick against him.

Prediction: Edmonton in 7

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Paint by numbers

With the second season well underway, some trends have emerged.

Scoring is down from last year, despite the significant uptick during the regular season.  The first round games were far closer, with 28 of the 42 games played being won by a single goal, compared to 27 of 47 last year.  19 games this year went to overtime, with 2 being settled during the second overtime, as compared to last year resulting in 7 overtime finishes with 3 double overtime results.  Last year only saw 20 overtime games throughout the playoffs.

There have been 8 shutouts so far, and 9 in the first round last year.

However, in spite of the relative closeness, there have been two sweeps thus far, which did not occur at all last postseason.

Fights were down as expected, but more interestingly, extracurriculars were too, with a grand total of 5 misconducts, compared to 25 last year.  No one was taking a pound of flesh, despite a few dirty hits and goalie bumps.

Last year saw two upsets in the first round.  This year we saw three.

The two worst teams at faceoffs in the first round, St. Louis and Washington, both advanced.  St. Louis had the worst zone starts, and only won 42.3% of the faceoffs taken in the defensive zone, were outshot in all but one game, but Jake Allen stood on his head.

Sometimes, the bounces are in your favor.  That certainly was the case for the Blues.

Second round predictions: Eastern Conference

The results of my first round predictions were grim: I only correctly picked the Capitals to advance in the East, and the Oilers and Ducks in the West.  This is the nature of playoff hockey, and why we love it so much.  The unpredictability keeps us glued to the couch for two (often disappointing) months.

Still, 3/8 is not so bad, considering no one in the world had the Predators sweeping a still very good Blackhawks team. But I am a Capitals fan, so falling short of expectations is the name of the game.  No harm, no foul.

As we move on to the second round tomorrow evening, with oddly both Western series beginning on the same day, we take a breath, restock the fridge, and prepare for disappointment.

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (2) Pittsburgh Penguins

Much has been written of this playoff matchup between the top two teams in the regular season.  Mostly, the public response has been negative.  While not perfect, the current format, based on that of 1981-82, allows for teams to play year after year when it matters most, whereas the previous format would see the division champions ranked as the two top seeds with the remaining slots filled by the next six teams in the conference, making repeated playoff matchups far less frequent. 

However, instead of fretting over the format, we should focus on the likelihood that the winner of this series will go on to win the Stanley Cup, as it did last year and twice in the early '90s. 

The Capitals have never been more motivated to play hard than they are now - after a surprisingly tough battle with the Maple Leafs over a six game series which saw every game decided by a single goal, they now face their nemesis, their greatest rival, the biggest bump on the road to success, a team they have not beaten in a playoff series since 1994.  The x-factor in this series is health.  The Capitals have a question mark on defense with Alzner missing games for the first time in several years, but having acquired depth in Shattenkirk, they have seven NHL defensemen on the roster. 

The Penguins, having lost Letang for the duration of the playoffs, with Kunitz and Hagelin remaining as big question marks, are depleted of much of the scoring depth that helped propel them past the Capitals last season.  The Capitals are a heavy team, perhaps the heaviest in the Eastern Conference, and rely on dumping the puck into the zone and maintaining long possessions to score goals.  Letang counters that by getting the puck first and moving it out of the zone quickly to the Penguins fast forwards.  His loss will be the difference maker.  Hagelin of course led the team against the Capitals, scoring three goals including a game winner, and assisting on Bonino's OT winner which ended the series.  Forming one third of the best line in the playoffs last year, if he is unable to gear up, Hagelin's skating ability will badly be missed against a team that often looked bad in transition against a high-flying Maple Leafs roster.  Kunitz, having lost a step, is still effective on the forecheck, is tenacious in front of the net, and scored as many goals and assists in last year's matchup as Malkin and Crosby combined.  Depth scoring matters in the playoffs, and with the potential loss of these two, the Penguins will have their work cut out for them. 

Prediction: Washington in 6

(2) Ottawa Senators vs. (WC1) New York Rangers

Four years removed from posting the best save percentage in NHL history, and two years removed from the Hamburglar's incredible run, Craig Anderson is back where he belongs: backstopping an upstart Senators team in the playoffs.  Following an up-and-down season with an unprecedented amount of stress due to his wife's health issues, Anderson is seated firmly atop the goaltender depth chart.  Establishing consistency late in the year helped drive the Senators ahead of a team that showed flashes of brilliance, Anderson, having won 7 of his previous 9 starts, bested the hottest team outside of DC in dramatic fashion.  Driven by a dominating series at the hands of Erik Karlsson, the Senators took advantage of a stupid penalty - in overtime, off the puck - to put the Bruins away. 

This series may be partially overshadowed by the Zibanejad/Brassard trade, but the Rangers are playing for much more.  No team has played more post-season games since 2012 since the Rangers, who are leaning heavily on an aging and now often hurt Henrik Lundqvist.  After another amazing series against a top flight goaltender, it is clear that he still has a lot left to give.  The question is whether or not the team will give him another chance. 

New York was the best team on the road, and they will need to steal a game from Ottawa to have a chance. 

Prediction: New York in 7