The big news of the day is William Nylander’s monster extension: 8 years, $92mm, with a full NMC throughout. Good for William. He deserves it. He took a team deal last time, despite holding out until the last possible moment to resign. Morgan Rielly did too, sans holdout.
No one else did though: John Tavares signed for his hometown team, his preferred destination, for the largest contract offer on the table, also with a full NMC throughout; while Mitch Marner also signed for his hometown team, with NMC protection in the last two years. Both Marner and JT took heavily front-loaded deals, with almost the entire value of the contract paid as signing bonus (thus protected- the two signed shortly after the previous lockout, which resulted in contract proration which did not affect fully guaranteed signing bonuses).
In line with Toronto’s history during the cap era, GM Brad Treliving gets bent over. After handing Calgary Flame newcomer Jonathan Huberdeau what may be the worst contract in NHL history, he gets the chance to one up himself by locking his new team into committing roughly 53% of the salary cap on just four players. Out of a roster of 23. The aforementioned Morgan Rielly takes up another 8.75%.
For those of you doing the math at home, that’s nearly 62% of the salary cap committed to 21.7% of the roster.
It also seems unfeasible that the Leafs would let Marner walk when he becomes a UFA after next season, so even if they let JT explore his options when he too becomes a UFA after next season, the Leafs will still be in a bind. Marner will be turning 28 next May, and given his chemistry with goal scoring machine Auston Matthews, he’s a lock to increase his aav for what will likely be his last major deal, a deal which would see him not hit the open market until his mid-30s at the earliest. That will not come cheap. With the cap bump and JT heading out the door, one sees Marner landing comfortably above $12mm per annum, with trade protection.
Assuming the cap jumps again to above $90mm (we are assuming the projected $4mm jump comes to fruition for next season’s upper limit, followed by at least $2.5mm more the following year, when Marner and JT both become UFAs), that’ll be a 40% commitment to three forwards. Nearly 50% counting Rielly, a defenseman.
Imagine going from ‘spend it like you earned it’ Kyle Dubas to ‘it’s just money’ Brad Treliving.
This whole situation is hilarious because the Leafs are such a money machine that the players have no reason to take a team deal- so this is what *should* happen. Nylander was underpaid on his last contract, and it was unlikely he’d repeat that folly this time around. Matthews, Marner, and JT have shown no inclination to take one either. They generate so much revenue for a team which sells out every night at extortionist prices, and it is only fair that athletes maximize their value - to a still wildly profitable franchise. But it is not a viable model in a cap league that values parity. To date, one player making $10mm or more has one a Stanley Cup: Jack Eichel, who makes $10mm for reigning champion Vegas.
With this signing, Nylander will jump to the fifth highest cap hit in the league when his extension kicks in. Marner, the cheapest of the Big 4, will have the 11th.
Toronto obviously isn’t going to stop being the engine that drives the sport. But Toronto’s NHL team cannot reasonably expect to win unless they have lots of guys on ELCs, which they don’t have because Dubas emptied the cupboard to fill in the gaps with overpaid deadline deals.
Is it possible for Big 4 to drive 16 wins? Yes, but it is very unlikely. The Capitals don’t win in 2018,without DSP on the 4th line. Knights had guys like Kolesar and Barbashev on their fourth line, along with Shea Theodore and Chandler Stephenson making a laughable $5.2mm and $2.75mm per year, respectively. The Leafs have Pontus Holmberg, Bobby McMann, etc. No offense to those guys, but I don’t see them scoring much in a grindfest like vs Florida or Boston. Matthew Knies is a great insert, performing above his aav, but he is not enough.
All this to say, Nylander can skate and Matthews is such a competitor that I can see the two still driving the bus in five years, like Ovechkin, *finally* winning. But the Leafs are set up to continue wasting Auston’s youth on regular season goals. With his health a big question already, the Leafs should be prioritizing striking quickly. Thankfully, for our sake as Caps fans, Leafs management disagrees.
