Closing Night!

With the Stanley Cup awarded last night to a team 25% above the salary cap (wow), it is time for a quick recap of this blog's preseason predictions.

 

1. Ovechkin will not win the Rocket Richard Trophy as the leading goal scorer in the regular season.

Ha! Nope. Next. 0/1

2. Jakub Vrana will lead the Capitals in goals scored.

Wrong, but not as far off. As an added plus, the Vrana trade opened a spot for Daniel Sprong, who scored more goals in a Caps uniform than Vrana did. 0/2

3. Justin Schultz will make a big comeback.

I predicted a 35+ point season for Schultz in a bounce back year, and he was projected to finish with 33 points had he not missed 10 games with injury. So it wasn't a big comeback, but it was enough that this one is in the win column. 1/3

4. The Capitals will eliminate the slingshot zone entry on the power play.

Bang on. Teamwise, the team improved from last season's 19.4% rate to finish 17th to this season's 24.8% rate to finish 3rd. Given all of the injuries the team suffered to its top unit, this sharp of an improvement is magical. 

Not that either sample size was large, but the power play was worse in this season's playoffs compared to last season's. As we are frequently reminded, being reliant on the power play in the regular season can cause problems in the playoffs, when the opportunities dry up, and the refereeing tends to favor the defense a bit more than in the regular season. 

Big win in this prediction. 2/4

5. The Capitals will sport the best penalty killing in the NHL. 

Big improvement year over year, with the team finishing 5th, up 1.4%. Boston and Carolina, somehow, both improved as well, who along with the Knights and Lightning, finished ahead of the Caps. Half credit for this one. 2.5/5

6. Take way too many penalties.

The Caps finished 6th in PIM, which could be bad. But, the 5th place finish in majors and 2nd in total misconducts mitigates this number quite a bit. Bottom line, the team's 17th place finish for most minor penalties is a sign that the team plays physical, clean hockey. The problem is the -12 net penalty differential; the Capitals finished 24th in power play opportunities and 17th in times shorthanded. To add insult to injury, the Caps also allowed the most shorthanded goals per game - while, again, having the 8th fewest opportunities. That is horrific. No serious contender has splits this bad.

Bang on. 3.5/6

7. The Capitals will not win the division.

I added a prediction of a playoff division win, which did not happen. But the base prediction was correct, so this counts. 4.5/7

8. The Penguins will miss the playoffs. 

Lol. Right. 4.5/8

9. Taylor Hall will sign a long-term deal to stay in Buffalo.

Woof. 4.5/9

10. John Carlson will win the Norris Trophy.

I was right that the writers would pick the wrong Norris winner. That counts for something, right? 4.5/10 

11. Ilya Samsonov will be a Vezina Trophy finalist. 

I still stand by this prediction, that if he was healthy, he would have been a finalist. Well, I coulda been a contender. 4.5/11

12. The Capitals will trade for a backup goaltender. 

I knew Vanacek would be a good NHL goalie, but I had no idea he would steal the starting job for a season in which he wasn't even slotted to make the team. He does not get nearly enough credit for how incredible he played this season. Big ups to Vitek for making this one of the wronger answers. Is that even a word? 4.5/12

12. TJ Oshie will be selected in the Expansion Draft and will become the Seattle Kraken's inaugural captain. 

TBD...

13. Richard Panik, who never quite fit, will be traded during the season.

Bingo bango. Sprong (6th) took a third line job, not fourth, and Sheary (4th) also had a very strong season; both of the two finished top 6 in team goals. 5.5/12

14. Nicklas Backstrom, after another strong two-way season, will still not be a Selke candidate. 

This one almost doesn't count. 6.5/13

15. Evgeny Kuznetsov will not be suck on faceoffs this year.

Kuznetsov was not just suck on faceoffs this year, he actually got worse. 6.5/14

16. With 8 chances, Brad Marchand finally gets what's coming.  

Not only did facelicker not get what's coming, Top Line Tommy got an undue suspension at the Bruins' hands, and Marchand got the last laugh in the playoffs. Repeatedly. No spit, no lube. 6.5/15

17. Tom Wilson will be suspended.

Wrong reason, but bang on. 7.5/16

18. Tom Wilson will lead the league in penalty minutes. 

I knew it would be because of the Rangers, but I did not foresee Brendan Lemieux requesting a trade (unfortunately, at that). Bang on, especially with the 7 game suspension knocking out an eighth of his season. 8.5/17

19. Garnet Hathaway and Brendan Dillon will finish top 10 in penalty minutes. 

Hathaway's 66 was good for 8th while Dillon's 49 was good for 26th. Half credit for this one. 9/18

20. Lars Eller will continue his playoff heroics.

He was good, but heroic? No. 9/19

21. The Capitals will reach the Stanley Cup Final, but lose.

😂 9/20

Might is Right or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson is in the news again, this time for his actions in yesterday's thrashing of the New York Rangers. Midway through the second period, while on the penalty kill, Rangers forward Pavel Buchnevich crashed the net and tried to poke loose the puck after Capitals goaltender Vitek Vanacek had gained control. Wilson, like every hockey player in the sport's history, decided to defend his goalie, and punched and tried to drag Buchnevich away from the crease. Vanacek appeared slow to get up, first rising to his knees, bent over on all fours, although there was no indication that he was hurt on the play - I presume that he was catching his breath or collecting himself, given that he had allowed three straight goals in less than seven minutes.

In doing so, he appropriately earned a minor penalty for roughing, for his punch on the prone Buchnevich's upper back/shoulder/neck. The Rangers, as is standard, defended their teammate, causing a massive pileup, starting with Ryan Strome trying to grab our beloved Top Line Tommy. Wilson, who was now engaged with Strome, was surprised by Rangers star Artemi Panarin, joined by Buchnevich, both jumping on his back while Wilson was bent over at the waist. Wilson, showing his strength, stood up and engaged with Panarin, which, as expected, further enraged the Rangers. Somehow the two were able to separate themselves from the group, and Wilson forcibly slammed Panarin to the ice, with the latter losing his helmet in the process. Wilson then threw two punches at Panarin, who tried to stand up before getting pushed back to the ice. The linesmen immediately jumped on Wilson and broke up the scrum.

The penalties assessed on the play: 

Tom Wilson 2 minutes for roughing Pavel Buchnevich

Tom Wilson 2 minutes for roughing Artemi Panarin

Tom Wilson 10 minute misconduct

Brendan Dillon 2 minutes for roughing Pavel Buchnevich

Artemi Panarin 2 minutes for roughing Tom Wilson

Pavel Buchnevich 2 minutes for roughing Brendan Dillon

Resulting in a 2 minute Rangers power play, and Tom Wilson missing around 16 minutes of game time due to no immediate whistle following the completion of his misconduct penalty. Tom Wilson was fined $5,000 today, May 4th, and the Rangers also announced that Panarin will unfortunately miss the remainder of the season. The Rangers also cried that NHL disciplinarian George Parros should be fired for not bending to their every whim.

First, the referees mostly got everything correct. Dillon did not deserve a 2 minute penalty, since he was clearly trying to break things up. However, the Rangers also obviously should have gotten a power play - Wilson could have gotten an additional minor for roughing and there would be no complaints from this corner. Buchnevich probably should have gotten a misconduct as well, since he was clearly escalating the situation, but we are totally fine with no additional penalties being called on the play.

Second, the NHL got things exactly right. Wilson should have gotten additional discipline, without missing any games, because he did not actually punch Buchnevich's head into the ice as Rangers fans, blinded by rage, have argued. It would be totally unprecedented, and would almost assuredly be overturned on appeal, for Wilson to be suspended for punching a player's jersey, as he did. It is appropriate to fine him, since he did throw a punch at a defenseless player, and was largely responsible for the situation that followed (he was, again, in the right for defending his goalie). $5,000 is the largest fine per the CBA, so there is no room for complaint that he should have been levied a larger fine.

Third, the Rangers' assertion that Wilson should have been suspended is based on the interpretation of his actions against Panarin, who, again, began the engagement between the two of them by literally jumping on Wilson's back while he was engaged with a different player. According to Rangers propaganda, Wilson not only intentionally knocked off Panarin's helmet, but then grabbed his hair and tried to slam him into the ice on his head. There is zero evidence of this, and numerous third party hockey reporters have argued that this narrative is incorrect. Wilson did slam Panarin, who weighs 50 pounds less than Wilson, but Panarin landed on his shoulder. Panarin did not sustain a head injury, which would almost assuredly have happened had he landed on his head. Wilson's two punches to Panarin rightfully earned him a roughing penalty, but given that Wilson has a history of punching faces resulting in head injuries, and that Wilson's gloves remained on throughout the entire altercation, should be evidence enough of his complete and total lack of intent on injuring Panarin. 

It is presumed that the NHL viewed the scrum involving Wilson as two separate events: the punch to Buchnevich and the wrestling with Panarin. The punch resulted in a fine, and the wrestling was deemed a normal play with a bad result, and so was not addressed by the NHL (the NHL does not comment on incidents that do not result in supplementary discipline, to include providing a reason for taking no action). 

All this being said, one major question remains. If the roles were reversed and Wilson jumped on an opposing player's back while he was engaged with another Capital, would the Rangers organization and fans give him a pass as they have done to Panarin? I think any disinterested third party can guess the answer to that one: not a fucking chance. 

At the end of the day, Panarin, and the Rangers as a whole, bit off way more than they could chew, and paid an unfortunately steep price. It is profoundly stupid to argue that Wilson should not have responded to Panarin, as Rangers Head Coach David Quinn has implied, that due to his star status, he should not have been touched. It bears repeating: Panarin engaged Wilson, not the other way around. Wilson did not go into a pile looking to hurt Panarin. Panarin physically jumped on Wilson's back, while the latter was engaged with Ryan Strome. Wilson has the right to defend himself, which he did while showing great restraint. 

The NHL got this one mostly right. Kudos to Parros.

We also wish a speedy recovery to the Bread Man, who has been one of our favorite players since he broke into the league. Panarin clearly loves the sport, and the sport loves him back. No one outside of Philadelphia wants to see him get injured. 

We are looking forward to tomorrow's rematch.

Trade deadline recap

 Five days and three Capitals games have passed since Monday's trade deadline, headlined by the blockbuster deal the Capitals struck with the Detroit Red Wings. Your favorite blogger, for fear of making an emotional plea, wanted to wait to post the recap. This post was largely drafted on Monday, but was edited to include up to date statistics, which strengthen the position laid out hereafter.

The trade-

Washington Capitals receive: 

    Anthony Mantha

    Salary cap flexibility

    Cost certainty

Detroit Red Wings receive:

    Jakub Vrana 

    Richard Panik

    2021 1st round draft pick

    2022 2nd round draft pick

So far, Anthony Mantha has slotted in on the second line, matched with Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie, and has played around two and a half minutes on the second power unit (not counting today's ace performance against the Flyers). We suspect that this will be his typical usage moving forward, although the Capitals top 9 tends to get shaken up frequently as Coach Laviolette looks for favorable match-ups, tries to take advantage of the hot hand, or to wake up underperformers. Mantha has also scored in each of his first three games, matching the team record set by Sergei Berezin back in the halcyon days of the Jagr era, adding one assist in his team debut. He has also added four hits, three blocks, ten shots on goal, one takeaway, and three giveaways.

Not bad for a newcomer who had oddly fallen out of favor seven months after signing his big contract (4 years, $22.8 million, with a year 4 salary of $6.5 million). 

Mantha, importantly, will be a UFA after his current contract plays out; he will turn 30 prior to beginning his next deal. Jakub Vrana, two years younger than Mantha, is an arbitration-eligible pending RFA, currently making $3.35 million in the second year of his bridge deal signed after his breakout 2018-19 season during which he scored then career highs with 24 goals and 23 assists in 82 games. Vrana improved significantly during last year's COVID shortened season, during which he set new career marks with 25 goals and 27 assists in 69 games (nice). Vrana, however, was a ghost in back to back playoffs, scoring a whopping 0 points over his last 15 playoff games, along with a -8 and 4 minor penalties. No bueno. Regardless, Vrana was due a significant raise, not only for his proven secondary scoring ability, but also his ability to generate off the rush; today's game rewards fast players who can score - few in the league are better than Vrana at doing just that.

Here's where things get sticky. Vrana is represented by J.P. Barry, an agent who counts among his clients several elite players on relatively team friendly deals. Stars such as David Pastrnak (6 years, $40 million), Morgan Rielly (6 years, $30 million), Dougie Hamilton (6 years, $34.5 million), Filip Forsberg (6 years, $36 million), and Mathew Barzal (3 years, $21 million), are all woefully underpaid. Vrana also scores 5v5 at an elite rate; during the two year period covering 2018-2020, Vrana's 5v5 goals per 60 is 6th among regular NHLers, behind only Dominik Kubalik, Alexander Ovechkin, Brendan Gallagher, Auston Matthews, and Oliver Bjorkstrand, and is slightly ahead (1.40 vs 1.39) of Jake Guentzel. Guentzel, a playoff hero as a rookie, signed for 5 years, $30 million, with a limited no trade clause, out of his entry level deal; Kubalik, with a smaller body of work, signed a 2 year bridge deal worth $7.4 million. Even accounting for a team discount, we can assume Vrana would land in the $5.5-6 million per year range, given his arbitration rights, and that his next contract will likely buy several years of UFA status.

However, we are figuring that Vrana neither wants to play in Ovechkin's shadow, nor does he want to play on a short term deal. A five year deal will likely cost north of $6 million per year. Even accounting for the relatively likely loss of T.J. Oshie (or Dmitry Orlov) to the Kraken, the Capitals will have to resign both Alex Ovechkin and Ilya Samsonov, in a flat cap era. Given that the team is currently projected to have around $9.5 million of cap space prior to signing either of them, the money saved by the expansion draft likely would not cover Vrana's well deserved salary demands. Factoring in, again, both Vrana's arbitration eligibility and his apparent disgruntlement over his usage, as well as the realistic possibilities of a holdout and an offer sheet, there did not appear to be much runway to wrap up Vrana. 

Further, the team is big and plays a heavy game. Vrana is a speedster who struggles in the corners, does not kill penalties (he actually plays less PK time than Ovechkin - shocker), and had recently been a healthy scratch under Coach Laviolette. Making a move for Mantha, who clocks in at 6'5" and 234 lbs., just simply made sense. The trade gives the opportunity to a still young player to shine elsewhere, brings the Capitals a player who fits their style, and provides cost certainty and cap relief. Richard Panik never quite fit with the Capitals, and moving his $2.75 million cap hit, along with the conservative estimate of $5.5 million for Vrana, in exchange for Mantha's $5.75 million, gives the Capitals about $2.5 million per year of wiggle room. 

In sum, the Capitals get a player who better fits their rugged style of play, $2.5 million of cap space, and cost certainty moving forward. The Red Wings gain an elite scorer who should gel nicely with the fleet of foot Dylan Larkin, a serviceable Richard Panik, a presumably (hopefully) late 1st round pick this season, and a 2nd rounder next season. It may be a steep price to pay, as we all loved Vrana and the infectious energy he brought to the room and the blazing speed he brought to the ice, but the deal had to be made. The Capitals may lose in the long run, as Vrana can certainly become a 40 goal scoring feature winger, but Mantha gives the team a better shot to win today. And with the Ovechkin era waning, that may be all that matters. One more shot at a Cup. We'll take it.

Opening Night!

300 days since Alexander Ovechkin was shorted a chance at another 50 goal season, with 8 meaningful games played since (during which the Capitals scored a total of a whopping 13 goals), your Washington Hockey Team is finally back, and better than ever. Or at least better than last year. Which might be good enough to get a shot at the semi-finals. And that should count for something. Right?

Let's cut right to the chase. 21 bold predictions for 2021:

1. Ovechkin will not win the Rocket Richard Trophy as the leading goal scorer in the regular season. With David Pastrnak on the shelf to begin the season, most pundits are predicting that Auston Matthews will be crowned top shooter. But the smart money is on Leon Draisatl, who just keeps getting better, and now has even more tools around him. Don't worry, Caps fans, Ovie will still dominate, pot 30 or so goals, and move up the ladder in a few all-time categories. But he won't lead the team in goals scored for the first time in his career. That's because...

2. Jakub Vrana will lead the Capitals in goals scored. A compact schedule will necessitate more rest for the Capitals grey beards. Ovie will still play a ton, but Oshie will probably get scaled back a bit, possibly giving Vrana some chances on the first power play unit, but more importantly also giving him some more time with Tom Wilson on his opposite wing. Wilson is a better skater, and is better in transition, which is Vrana's bread and butter. Further, Vrana who has scored exactly 1 power play goal in each of his full NHL seasons, will be the focal point of the second unit, which will have a few more weapons to work with. One of those weapons, who will quarterback the second unit, will earn Vrana a huge pay increase. That weapon is none other than...

3. Justin Schultz will make a big comeback. After three seasons of diminishing returns, Justin Schultz returns to form, scoring 35+ points and giving the Capitals much needed goal scoring support from the back end. New Head Coach Peter Laviolette is notorious for operating with an aggressive defense corps, which should help with zone entry, one of the Capitals weak points last season. Speaking of zone entry...

4. The Capitals will eliminate the slingshot zone entry on the power play. Haha, just kidding.

But the power play will improve, as there are now two legitimate waves of attackers. The second wave will get a higher percentage of power play time too, as Ovechkin's ice time will scale back a bit (see: point 2). But the real change on special teams will be...

5. The Capitals will sport the best penalty killing in the NHL. Washington finished with the 11st best PK on the circuit last season, but with some obvious regression from teams ahead of them (Pittsburgh, Boston, Arizona, and Carolina), and a shored up left side of the defense, the Capitals will improve markedly with a man down. However, they will still...

6. Take way too many penalties. This might not be the worst thing in the world, since with the compressed schedule against (mostly) rivals, the Capitals are the bully on the block. But the team will lose some winnable games because of dumb penalties, causing...

7. The Capitals will not win the division. In the regular season, at least. But they will win the divisional bracket when it matters most, the playoffs. Speaking of the playoffs...

8. The Penguins will miss the playoffs. And it will be joyous. Although we would rather see another Caps/Pens series, it won't be this year. 

9. Taylor Hall will sign a long-term deal to stay in Buffalo. Debuting against the Capitals on opening night, he will gel with centerman Jack Eichel, who doesn't just make players around him better, he makes them elite. In the same vein, Eichel picks up the Art Ross and the Hart Trophy, after leading the Sabres back to the playoffs. Speaking of awards...

10. John Carlson will win the Norris Trophy. He shouldn't, since he is not good defensively, but after back to back seasons scoring north of a point per game, the neophyte corsi-crunchers will have their way and Carlson will earn some hardware. He'll have no one to thank more than...

11. Ilya Samsonov will be a Vezina Trophy finalist. Oddly, since he will finish somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 games, which will be a great transition for someone who has never played more than 37 games in a season. However, due to Hank Lundqvist's unexpected surgery, the Capitals had to scramble to figure out the backup situation, and were left standing when the music stopped. But have no fear...

12. The Capitals will trade for a backup goaltender. It will be expensive, though, costing one of Jonas Siegenthaler, Martin Fehevary, or Dmitry Orlov. Given what we are expecting about Vrana's playing himself into a Braden Point like deal, we are expecting one of the younger guys to be out the door. Also leaving, after the season, will be...

12. TJ Oshie will be selected in the Expansion Draft and will become the Seattle Kraken's inaugural captain. We'll all cry a little on the inside, but it is a good fit for both teams and the player. And it will only cost a mid-round draft pick to guarantee they take the American hockey hero. Also gone will be...

13. Richard Panik, who never quite fit, will be traded during the season. Daniel Sprong will take his spot on the fourth, line, forcing the Capitals' hand. Sprong, and fellow newcomer Conor Sheary, will both have strong seasons, further highlighting the team's ability to sniff out bargain talent. Speaking of bargains...

14. Nicklas Backstrom, after another strong two-way season, will still not be a Selke candidate. That belongs to Ryan O'Reilly, who snatches the trophy back from Sean Couturier. But that's no match for...

15. Evgeny Kuznetsov will not be suck on faceoffs this year. He will just be bad, but not as bad as before, as Vrana rounds out his game and learns to help out at the dot. It doesn't hurt that the only three teams with worse faceoff numbers than the Caps are all part of the realigned division. Speaking of realignment...

16. With 8 chances, Brad Marchand finally gets what's coming. The Capitals have long memories, and with more opportunities to pick apart that disgusting face-licker, Tom Wilson will lay the beatdown on the dirtiest player in the game today, causing...

17. Tom Wilson will be suspended. This is probably not a bold prediction, but he will get a one-gamer for instigating a fight in the last five minutes. Better make it worth it.

18. Tom Wilson will lead the league in penalty minutes. After finishing top ten in each of his previous NHL seasons, Top Line Tommy will finally be the champ. We'll be able to thank Brendan Lemieux for this. Joining Wilson will be...

19. Garnet Hathaway and Brendan Dillon will finish top 10 in penalty minutes. Dillon loves minor penalties more than anything else in the world, and Hathaway is going to grow into more of a pest as he tries to cling onto his roster spot.

20. Lars Eller will continue his playoff heroics. One of the heroes of the 2018 Cup run, Eller will build his legend even more while leading the team in game-winning goals in the 'loffs. The second season will...

21. The Capitals will reach the Stanley Cup Final, but lose. Edmonton is this blog's pick to win it all, as an improved McDavid and returning MVP Draisatl lead a team that can score its way out of any problems.

Preseason Warm-Up

 We are back for another season of Capitals hockey. For the second time in ten years, the NHL begins the slate in January, although this time it was not due to a labor stoppage (Gary Bettman has been thoroughly impressive in leading the NHL through these tough times, and deservedly gets a shout out from a blog that has not been friendly to him. 

This time around, we are looking at a 56 game season, with the Capitals matched up with Metropolitan Division rivals Penguins, Flyers, Islanders, Rangers, and Devils, along with the Sabres and Bruins joining from the Atlantic. There will be an 8-game season series with each opponent, consisting (mostly) of back-to-back match-ups in one city, starting off with Buffalo on the 14th and 15th. Due to the proximity of the Rangers, Islanders, and Devils, the Capitals will have a five game set from March 30th through April 6th, facing the Rangers, Islanders, Devils, Devils, and Islanders in order. The season long 6 game road swing between April 17th and 27th features end caps against the Flyers, and back-to-backs with the Bruins and Islanders in between. The only other quirk is a one-off with the Rangers in New York on February 4th. 

There are five back-to-backs; three at home and two on the road. The first of those back-to-backs is the season opening set, played on the road. The second road back-to-back is against the Islanders and Devils in the aforementioned five game road swing where the team will presumably stay at the same hotel for 8 or 9 nights straight. That sounds like a lot fun with no room service or housekeeping.

 And in what has become a favorite tradition (in this household, at least), the Capitals will play a matinee on Super Bowl Sunday, this time hosting the Flyers. With the Wizards off, the odds are good that the Capitals will be the only local team playing. It's possible. But it's not likely.

To no one's surprise, the Capitals boast both one of the hardest schedules, and one of the lightest travel schedules. And to that, we raise a glass. Because there's nothing else to do.