68 goals walked out of the door this offseason. 14 game winning goals, 2 of which were in overtime. 2 top 6 forwards, gone. 2 top penalty killers, gone too. There are some big holes to fill, and we expect most of the burden to be borne by prospects, although one veteran acquisition should make the squad.
1st Line
Ovechkin - Backstrom - Oshie
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Continuity is good, and in the case of a squad undergoing a massive overhaul, it is critical. All roads lead to Ovechkin, who needs to score more than his pathetic (by his standards) 33 goals and 69 points. A career 12.3% shooter, Alex shot 10.5% last season, which, while not bad, left 5 or 6 goals on the table. If the Capitals expect to win, they will need the captain to convert more frequently, especially given the likelihood of TJ Oshie's own percentage receding back to normal. The new look, quicker Ovechkin will need to score on the rush and drive play. That is the only way to win in today's NHL. Nicklas Backstrom lead the team in points for the first time in his career, and with two bona fide scoring wingers, look for a repeat performance. The question dangling over his head is whether he will lose significant offensive zone time to Kuznetsov, taking on a role similar to Kopitar in LA. If so, he will be successful, but that success will be measured differently. TJ Oshie quickly became a fan favorite, and after two solid seasons in Washington, earned a long-term deal. Like Orpik's contract, the back end could hurt the team, but this is a reasonable price to pay for a guy who brings it every shift and leads the team from the front.
2nd Line
Burakovsky - Kuznetsov - Wilson
Three guys with something to prove; Andre Burakovsky signed a 2-year bridge deal this summer and needs to show that he belongs in Washington's top 6. Evgeny Kuznetsov is now the 11th highest paid center in the NHL, behind 5 Cup winners, and needs to back up the contract with a return to offensive excellence. Tom Wilson, like his potential linemates, had a strong postseason, and is playing to justify his draft selection. If he is unable to produce at both ends of the rink, he may find himself out the door, as the Capitals may shift away from physicality in an effort to mirror the Penguins success. Expect this line to get plenty of chances to play together early in the year, as Kuznetsov looks for consistent wingers.
3rd Line
Chiasson - Eller - Vrana
For some reason, Alex Chiasson was not qualified this offseason. Well, one man's trash is another man's treasure. Or so we hope. Chiasson has averaged 27 points per 82 over his career, and has shot from an average of 25.1 feet over the same time frame - similar to Johnny Gaudreau, Sidney Crosby, John Tavares, and Ryan Kesler. Chiasson will not score like them, but it is always a good sign when a player gets into prime real estate. Lars Eller was an expensive but reliable pickup, even if he will forever be linked to the goalie-who-shall-not-be-named. He will also be a UFA this offseason, so I expect another strong campaign, ideally followed by a postseason reminiscent of 2014. Jakub Vrana is a great fit on the second line, but I suspect he will spend much of the year on the third as the Capitals look to spread speed and scoring throughout the lineup. If he underwhelms, look for him to be moved, as the Caps brass is on the hot seat and will be desperate to stay employed.
4th Line
Walker - Beagle - Connolly
Nathan Walker will make history on opening night, but he will not be an everyday player - yet. His speed and tenacity are sorely needed on the fourth line, but Devante Smith-Pelly, Connolly, and Walker (and to a lesser extent, Chiasson and Anthony Peluso) will all share time on the fourth line wing. Beagle should have another strong year on the penalty kill, and will likely regress somewhat on offense, but he is otherwise a great fourth line center. Connolly was one of the best offseason steals last year and was rewarded with a two-year pact, so the pressure will be on him to produce. He is not likely to net 18.5% of his shots again, but with a bigger role and an opposite winger with better offensive instincts, Connolly should match or exceed last season's point totals.
Extras
Smith-Pelly - Peluso
Devante Smith-Pelly, like Eller, had a great 2014 postseason. Unlike Eller, Smith-Pelly has struggled ever since, scoring 24 goals in 191 games. He brings great size, and energy, but as a player prone to streaks, he will likely play fewer than 50 games in Washington. Anthony Peluso represents the game of the past, but with Pittsburgh adding Ryan Reaves, Columbus remaining big and mean, and the relative youth of the bottom six wingers, he should have some limited opportunity to play. We are not expecting much, but a fourth line enforcer does not need to produce much to be effective.
1st Line
Ovechkin - Backstrom - Oshie
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Continuity is good, and in the case of a squad undergoing a massive overhaul, it is critical. All roads lead to Ovechkin, who needs to score more than his pathetic (by his standards) 33 goals and 69 points. A career 12.3% shooter, Alex shot 10.5% last season, which, while not bad, left 5 or 6 goals on the table. If the Capitals expect to win, they will need the captain to convert more frequently, especially given the likelihood of TJ Oshie's own percentage receding back to normal. The new look, quicker Ovechkin will need to score on the rush and drive play. That is the only way to win in today's NHL. Nicklas Backstrom lead the team in points for the first time in his career, and with two bona fide scoring wingers, look for a repeat performance. The question dangling over his head is whether he will lose significant offensive zone time to Kuznetsov, taking on a role similar to Kopitar in LA. If so, he will be successful, but that success will be measured differently. TJ Oshie quickly became a fan favorite, and after two solid seasons in Washington, earned a long-term deal. Like Orpik's contract, the back end could hurt the team, but this is a reasonable price to pay for a guy who brings it every shift and leads the team from the front.
2nd Line
Burakovsky - Kuznetsov - Wilson
Three guys with something to prove; Andre Burakovsky signed a 2-year bridge deal this summer and needs to show that he belongs in Washington's top 6. Evgeny Kuznetsov is now the 11th highest paid center in the NHL, behind 5 Cup winners, and needs to back up the contract with a return to offensive excellence. Tom Wilson, like his potential linemates, had a strong postseason, and is playing to justify his draft selection. If he is unable to produce at both ends of the rink, he may find himself out the door, as the Capitals may shift away from physicality in an effort to mirror the Penguins success. Expect this line to get plenty of chances to play together early in the year, as Kuznetsov looks for consistent wingers.
3rd Line
Chiasson - Eller - Vrana
For some reason, Alex Chiasson was not qualified this offseason. Well, one man's trash is another man's treasure. Or so we hope. Chiasson has averaged 27 points per 82 over his career, and has shot from an average of 25.1 feet over the same time frame - similar to Johnny Gaudreau, Sidney Crosby, John Tavares, and Ryan Kesler. Chiasson will not score like them, but it is always a good sign when a player gets into prime real estate. Lars Eller was an expensive but reliable pickup, even if he will forever be linked to the goalie-who-shall-not-be-named. He will also be a UFA this offseason, so I expect another strong campaign, ideally followed by a postseason reminiscent of 2014. Jakub Vrana is a great fit on the second line, but I suspect he will spend much of the year on the third as the Capitals look to spread speed and scoring throughout the lineup. If he underwhelms, look for him to be moved, as the Caps brass is on the hot seat and will be desperate to stay employed.
4th Line
Walker - Beagle - Connolly
Nathan Walker will make history on opening night, but he will not be an everyday player - yet. His speed and tenacity are sorely needed on the fourth line, but Devante Smith-Pelly, Connolly, and Walker (and to a lesser extent, Chiasson and Anthony Peluso) will all share time on the fourth line wing. Beagle should have another strong year on the penalty kill, and will likely regress somewhat on offense, but he is otherwise a great fourth line center. Connolly was one of the best offseason steals last year and was rewarded with a two-year pact, so the pressure will be on him to produce. He is not likely to net 18.5% of his shots again, but with a bigger role and an opposite winger with better offensive instincts, Connolly should match or exceed last season's point totals.
Extras
Smith-Pelly - Peluso
Devante Smith-Pelly, like Eller, had a great 2014 postseason. Unlike Eller, Smith-Pelly has struggled ever since, scoring 24 goals in 191 games. He brings great size, and energy, but as a player prone to streaks, he will likely play fewer than 50 games in Washington. Anthony Peluso represents the game of the past, but with Pittsburgh adding Ryan Reaves, Columbus remaining big and mean, and the relative youth of the bottom six wingers, he should have some limited opportunity to play. We are not expecting much, but a fourth line enforcer does not need to produce much to be effective.
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