Monday, April 16, 2018

A Glutton for Punishment

For the second time in two games, the Capitals blew an early 2 goal lead and lost in overtime.

Also for the second time in two games, the Blue Jackets were the big kids on the block.

Coincidence?  Probably not.

Through two games, the BJs have amassed four goaltender interference penalties, have injured two Capitals, and have dominated Grubauer's goal crease.  Last night, four of Columbus' five goals, including the overtime game winner, were scored from 20 feet or less.  Through two games and nine goals, the average distance from the net for Columbus goals is 18 feet- 13.5 feet when discounting Zach Werenski's blue line wrister through Route 66 evening rush hour traffic.

The Capitals, meanwhile, have just two goals from within 20 feet, averaging 27 feet per goal thus far.

In game 1, the Capitals mustered 30 shots on goal, scoring thrice, at an average distance of 40.733 feet.  Of those thirty shots, five were from within 20 feet.  In game 2, the team through everything at Sergei Bobrovsky, somehow managing 58 shots on goal- this time at an average of 40.759 feet.  Of those 58 shots, 20 were from within 20 feet.  Massive progress, for sure, but not enough, as Bobrovsky showed why he is a two-time Vezina winner.

Interestingly enough, the Blue Jackets averaged 45.889 and 45.1 feet per shot in games 1 and 2, respectively.  In game 1, four shots were from within 20 feet, netting three goals.  In game 2, six shots were from within 20 feet, netting four goals.  They banged home their close chances by controlling rebounds and dominating at home plate.

I cannot stress this enough.

The Capitals are getting bullied and are, in typical Ted Leonsis-led fashion, overly reliant on a dominant power play generating distance shots with incredible accuracy.  Washington has scored two even strength goals on home ice in two games.

Columbus has otherworldly goaltending, allowing the ninth fewest even strength goals (2.05/game) while playing in a division that scored the most.  The Capitals tied for sixth in even strength goals scored, or 2.4/game.

If there is any hope of turning the series around, it will come from even strength play.  If there is any hope of even strength play generating offense, then the Capitals need to generate more chances close to the net, and to convert them, while limiting those allowed by the defense.

For that to happen, the team needs to win in the paint.

Edit: Andre Burakovsky is out for games 3 and 4 and will not travel with the team, due to the hit detailed here.

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