Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Playoff predictions: first round

The most exciting time in sports, hockey's second season, begins tonight.  For the next two weeks, the NHL's sweet sixteen will do battle for the chance to advance to the second round, that mythical but oh-too-real glass ceiling the Capitals seem unable to shatter.  But first, our bold predictions.

Eastern Conference

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New Jersey Devils

It was a mistake to trade Vladislav Namestnikov, who at times drove play on what was the best line in hockey.  J.T. Miller shone in Tampa, and Ryan McDonagh is an improvement on an already deep defensive corps, but the hit to the top line chemistry may be too much to overcome.  Nikita Kucherov, one of the most potent snipers in the game, was noticeably less effective without Namestnikov on his opposite wing, managing only 6 goals in 17 games after the trade deadline.  With Steven Stamkos's health up in the air, Tampa's ability to match New Jersey's top line offense may be muted, but make no mistake: this is an elite team stacked with talent throughout.  Led by Hart Trophy candidate Taylor Hall, who will be making his long-awaited playoff debut tomorrow, the Devils will have their hands full.  Marcus Johansson was supposed to be a key cog, but he has been out since January with concussion problems.  Winning the right to draft Nico Hischier was a blessing, but the team is in the first year of a long rebuild.  Tampa overwhelms New Jersey in 5.

Washington Capitals vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

What else can be said that has not been beaten to death already?  Your Washington Capitals impressed the field, far exceeding expectations in spite of serious underlying problems.  The team was strong down the stretch too, finishing 15-7 since acquiring Michal Kempny.  Since Philipp Grubauer took over the starting role, the team has been particularly scorching, and he was rewarded with the start in Game 1.  But the woes get worse when considering just how top heavy this team is: Alex Ovechkin scored 18.9% of the team's goals; if the Capitals win the Cup, that will be the largest share of team goals since Teemu Selanne in 2007.  A disciplined team can limit their exposure to the greatest shooter of all time by simply staying out of the box.  Unfortunately, the first round opponent is highly disciplined: Columbus was shorthanded just 214 times.  Only Carolina stayed out of the box more.  Sergei Bobrovsky was his usual dominant self, though he took a step back from last year.  The bigger concern is the Bread Man, who controlled play at even strength better than almost the whole circuit.  If the Capitals can jump on Columbus' mistakes, and keep out of the box themselves, this series should be a breeze.  Realistically, this goes the distance.  Washington in 7.

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Boston head coach Bruce Cassidy was a disappointment behind the bench in Washington, losing in dramatic fashion to Tampa Bay before tanking for Ovechkin.  Back in the league for the first time since 2003, he has a lot to prove.  Bouncing back from two straight seasons of golfing in April, the Bruins are the best team in the East, led by an 80 year old defenseman and a generational talent in Patrice Bergeron.  Toronto rode the backs of their rookies last year to a six game defeat at the hands of the Capitals, and they will fall short of expectations this year, as they draw the toughest slot in the tournament.  Auston Mathews was banged up, but managed to score a point per game, and is developing into a dominant center in his own right.  But the Bruins will prove too much for the youngster and his cadre, as Boston wins handily, in 5.

No time to write the others, so a quick dump:

Pitt over Philly in 6
Nashville over Colorado in 5
Winnipeg over Minnesota in 4
LA over Vegas in 7
Anaheim over San Jose in 5


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