Thursday, February 15, 2024

Jarmo Kekalainen fired

 The Columbus Blue Jackets are not a good hockey team. They are not exactly a hockey city, though Ohio State's program has come a long way. But southeastern Ohio is the home of backyard brawling football players and the eastern bound of the corn-fed baseball sluggers. So it should come as no surprise that the Blue Jackets have consistently struggled with attendance, never finishing above the bottom third of the league in terms of capacity percentage other than during the two seasons directly impacted by COVID (from 2021-23, many Canadian and Californian teams had strict attendance and social distancing rules, affecting their attendance numbers). 


Yet, during Jarko's ten year reign, which coincided with Columbus' realignment in the Metropolitan Division, the hapless Blue Jackets made the playoffs five times, scratching out their only playoff series win (a stunner over the record setting Tampa Bay Lightning). Before Jarko, the team had just one playoff appearance in its first thirteen seasons, in 2008-09, when the Jackets got swept in round one by eventual Cup loser Detroit.


Jarko was a famous big game hunter in Columbus, landing Artemi Panarin in a coup from Chicago, and shocking the hockey world by landing the biggest catch on the market in Johnny Gaudreau, signing the latter to a max-length seven year deal, for less term and money than the team he had left, Calgary, had offered. He was never afraid to roll the dice, famously losing Panarin to the allure of New York City and the money the Rangers could offer (and let's be real- the Rangers are competitive and the Jackets are not). And he made waves by trading for diva Patrik Laine, an immensely talented winger who has struggled mightily in Columbus, in the process acquiring Columbus-native Jack Roslovic, who has similarly disappointed.


Taking over the team shortly after longtime face of the franchise Rick Nash was traded to the Rangers, Jarmo set to work building a hockey culture in Columbus. Never a top free agent destination, Jarmo crafted a team of players who wanted to play for the Jackets.


However, in the end, that was simply not enough. Jarmo's gaffes, including hiring Mike Babcock, whose unceremonious resignation shortly before the season began foretold of the chaos to follow, were insurmountable. Despite landing the big names, the success did not follow; Gaudreau has been famously unproductive, and Laine had been as well, prior to entering the NHLPA's Player Assistance Program.


One has to wonder how the bungling of the team's defensive personnel affected Jarmo's firing. The team entered the season with eight rostered NHL defensemen, including rookie David Jiricek, who recently complained of not being in the NHL, competing on the highest level, like many of those drafted below him. For this to be made public, and to blow up to the extent that it did, could not have boded well for Jarmo. No news is good news, and when you are a bottom feeder, bad news is worse.


The oddest part of the firing is the timing; Columbus, sitting in last in the Eastern Conference, three points behind 15th place Ottawa, which has three games in hand, can only consider this a lost season (yet again). Laine, as mentioned earlier, is in the Player's Assistance Program, after struggling with an arm injury which derailed his season. Pascal Vincent, who was promoted to Head Coach in the wake of Babcock's resignation, is a first year head coach. Firing Jarmo mid-season just doesn't make sense.

 

How does firing him in February make the team better? Did he have an awful plan heading into the trade deadline? We have no doubt that Jarmo will easily land wherever he wants. I just hope it's out west.

Sunday, January 14, 2024

NHL Network has got to go

First off, pretty much no one carries it, other than traditional cable/satellite. But no worries, the NHL has your back!. All you have to do is follow each link and input your info into each provider's website. Thanks guys, you brought the internet back to the 90s. Without the good parts.

To watch 82 Capitals games out of market, but within the US, one needs to subscribe to two separate services (Sling Blue + Sling TV Sports Extra & ESPN+). For just $40 + $11 + $11 + taxes + fees + whatever other nonsense. Is this the league's intention: to make fans jump through hoops to watch their favorite teams play? We want to turn on our devices and know that all 82 games are available live. This is how live sports fandom works, how it has always worked, and how it will always work. Why deviate from this?

Secondly, the broadcast sucks. It's awful. The on-air talent is middling, with some, like Kevin Weekes, whose name is being lent to give the platform some credibility, visibly stooping to carry a subpar product. Unfortunately, the broadcast is done from the studio, rather than in the arena, so the fans are left watching the talent comment on the same tv show we are watching. Twitch sucks, and forcing hockey fans to consume the product as if we were watching live streaming of some jerkoff commenting on a video game is a poor tactic. Further, the intermission shows are boring and flat,t he production quality is low, and the studio is boring. The ESPN/TNT product is significantly better and should be the focus and flagship broadcast of the NHL. 

Thirdly, the NHL's product should be a recap/highlights show, similar to NFL's red zone. And it should be broadcast weekly, at the same time, or it should flood the market. It can't be this "will they won't they" nonsense, with random games shown at random times on random days. Either give us something to look forward to or get the hell off the air.

That's all.

Monday, January 8, 2024

William Nylander Extends

The big news of the day is William Nylander’s monster extension: 8 years, $92mm, with a full NMC throughout. Good for William. He deserves it. He took a team deal last time, despite holding out until the last possible moment to resign. Morgan Rielly did too, sans holdout. 

No one else did though: John Tavares signed for his hometown team, his preferred destination, for the largest contract offer on the table, also with a full NMC throughout; while Mitch Marner also signed for his hometown team, with NMC protection in the last two years. Both Marner and JT took heavily front-loaded deals, with almost the entire value of the contract paid as signing bonus (thus protected- the two signed shortly after the previous lockout, which resulted in contract proration which did not affect fully guaranteed signing bonuses).

In line with Toronto’s history during the cap era, GM Brad Treliving gets bent over. After handing Calgary Flame newcomer Jonathan Huberdeau what may be the worst contract in NHL history, he gets the chance to one up himself by locking his new team into committing roughly 53% of the salary cap on just four players. Out of a roster of 23. The aforementioned Morgan Rielly takes up another 8.75%. 


For those of you doing the math at home, that’s nearly 62% of the salary cap committed to 21.7% of the roster.


It also seems unfeasible that the Leafs would let Marner walk when he becomes a UFA after next season, so even if they let JT explore his options when he too becomes a UFA after next season, the Leafs will still be in a bind. Marner will be turning 28 next May, and given his chemistry with goal scoring machine Auston Matthews, he’s a lock to increase his aav for what will likely be his last major deal, a deal which would see him not hit the open market until his mid-30s at the earliest. That will not come cheap. With the cap bump and JT heading out the door, one sees Marner landing comfortably above $12mm per annum, with trade protection. 


Assuming the cap jumps again to above $90mm (we are assuming the projected $4mm jump comes to fruition for next season’s upper limit, followed by at least $2.5mm more the following year, when Marner and JT both become UFAs), that’ll be a 40% commitment to three forwards. Nearly 50% counting Rielly, a defenseman.


Imagine going from ‘spend it like you earned it’ Kyle Dubas to ‘it’s just money’ Brad Treliving.


This whole situation is hilarious because the Leafs are such a money machine that the players have no reason to take a team deal- so this is what *should* happen. Nylander was underpaid on his last contract, and it was unlikely he’d repeat that folly this time around. Matthews, Marner, and JT have shown no inclination to take one either. They generate so much revenue for a team which sells out every night at extortionist prices, and it is only fair that athletes maximize their value - to a still wildly profitable franchise. But it is not a viable model in a cap league that values parity. To date, one player making $10mm or more has one a Stanley Cup: Jack Eichel, who makes $10mm for reigning champion Vegas. 


With this signing, Nylander will jump to the fifth highest cap hit in the league when his extension kicks in. Marner, the cheapest of the Big 4, will have the 11th. 


Toronto obviously isn’t going to stop being the engine that drives the sport. But Toronto’s NHL team cannot reasonably expect to win unless they have lots of guys on ELCs, which they don’t have because Dubas emptied the cupboard to fill in the gaps with overpaid deadline deals.


Is it possible for Big 4 to drive 16 wins? Yes, but it is very unlikely. The Capitals don’t win in 2018,without DSP on the 4th line. Knights had guys like Kolesar and Barbashev on their fourth line, along with Shea Theodore and Chandler Stephenson making a laughable $5.2mm and $2.75mm per year, respectively. The Leafs have Pontus Holmberg, Bobby McMann, etc. No offense to those guys, but I don’t see them scoring much in a grindfest like vs Florida or Boston. Matthew Knies is a great insert, performing above his aav, but he is not enough.

All this to say, Nylander can skate and Matthews is such a competitor that I can see the two still driving the bus in five years, like Ovechkin, *finally* winning. But the Leafs are set up to continue wasting Auston’s youth on regular season goals. With his health a big question already, the Leafs should be prioritizing striking quickly. Thankfully, for our sake as Caps fans, Leafs management disagrees. 

Wednesday, December 20, 2023

It’s Miro Time!

First shift I love Miro. He skates at the net like it owes him money 

Thursday, July 8, 2021

Closing Night!

With the Stanley Cup awarded last night to a team 25% above the salary cap (wow), it is time for a quick recap of this blog's preseason predictions.

 

1. Ovechkin will not win the Rocket Richard Trophy as the leading goal scorer in the regular season.

Ha! Nope. Next. 0/1

2. Jakub Vrana will lead the Capitals in goals scored.

Wrong, but not as far off. As an added plus, the Vrana trade opened a spot for Daniel Sprong, who scored more goals in a Caps uniform than Vrana did. 0/2

3. Justin Schultz will make a big comeback.

I predicted a 35+ point season for Schultz in a bounce back year, and he was projected to finish with 33 points had he not missed 10 games with injury. So it wasn't a big comeback, but it was enough that this one is in the win column. 1/3

4. The Capitals will eliminate the slingshot zone entry on the power play.

Bang on. Teamwise, the team improved from last season's 19.4% rate to finish 17th to this season's 24.8% rate to finish 3rd. Given all of the injuries the team suffered to its top unit, this sharp of an improvement is magical. 

Not that either sample size was large, but the power play was worse in this season's playoffs compared to last season's. As we are frequently reminded, being reliant on the power play in the regular season can cause problems in the playoffs, when the opportunities dry up, and the refereeing tends to favor the defense a bit more than in the regular season. 

Big win in this prediction. 2/4

5. The Capitals will sport the best penalty killing in the NHL. 

Big improvement year over year, with the team finishing 5th, up 1.4%. Boston and Carolina, somehow, both improved as well, who along with the Knights and Lightning, finished ahead of the Caps. Half credit for this one. 2.5/5

6. Take way too many penalties.

The Caps finished 6th in PIM, which could be bad. But, the 5th place finish in majors and 2nd in total misconducts mitigates this number quite a bit. Bottom line, the team's 17th place finish for most minor penalties is a sign that the team plays physical, clean hockey. The problem is the -12 net penalty differential; the Capitals finished 24th in power play opportunities and 17th in times shorthanded. To add insult to injury, the Caps also allowed the most shorthanded goals per game - while, again, having the 8th fewest opportunities. That is horrific. No serious contender has splits this bad.

Bang on. 3.5/6

7. The Capitals will not win the division.

I added a prediction of a playoff division win, which did not happen. But the base prediction was correct, so this counts. 4.5/7

8. The Penguins will miss the playoffs. 

Lol. Right. 4.5/8

9. Taylor Hall will sign a long-term deal to stay in Buffalo.

Woof. 4.5/9

10. John Carlson will win the Norris Trophy.

I was right that the writers would pick the wrong Norris winner. That counts for something, right? 4.5/10 

11. Ilya Samsonov will be a Vezina Trophy finalist. 

I still stand by this prediction, that if he was healthy, he would have been a finalist. Well, I coulda been a contender. 4.5/11

12. The Capitals will trade for a backup goaltender. 

I knew Vanacek would be a good NHL goalie, but I had no idea he would steal the starting job for a season in which he wasn't even slotted to make the team. He does not get nearly enough credit for how incredible he played this season. Big ups to Vitek for making this one of the wronger answers. Is that even a word? 4.5/12

12. TJ Oshie will be selected in the Expansion Draft and will become the Seattle Kraken's inaugural captain

TBD...

13. Richard Panik, who never quite fit, will be traded during the season.

Bingo bango. Sprong (6th) took a third line job, not fourth, and Sheary (4th) also had a very strong season; both of the two finished top 6 in team goals. 5.5/12

14. Nicklas Backstrom, after another strong two-way season, will still not be a Selke candidate. 

This one almost doesn't count. 6.5/13

15. Evgeny Kuznetsov will not be suck on faceoffs this year.

Kuznetsov was not just suck on faceoffs this year, he actually got worse. 6.5/14

16. With 8 chances, Brad Marchand finally gets what's coming.  

Not only did facelicker not get what's coming, Top Line Tommy got an undue suspension at the Bruins' hands, and Marchand got the last laugh in the playoffs. Repeatedly. No spit, no lube. 6.5/15

17. Tom Wilson will be suspended.

Wrong reason, but bang on. 7.5/16

18. Tom Wilson will lead the league in penalty minutes. 

I knew it would be because of the Rangers, but I did not foresee Brendan Lemieux requesting a trade (unfortunately, at that). Bang on, especially with the 7 game suspension knocking out an eighth of his season. 8.5/17

19. Garnet Hathaway and Brendan Dillon will finish top 10 in penalty minutes. 

Hathaway's 66 was good for 8th while Dillon's 49 was good for 26th. Half credit for this one. 9/18

20. Lars Eller will continue his playoff heroics.

He was good, but heroic? No. 9/19

21. The Capitals will reach the Stanley Cup Final, but lose.

😂 9/20