Closing Night!

With the Stanley Cup awarded last night to a team 25% above the salary cap (wow), it is time for a quick recap of this blog's preseason predictions.

 

1. Ovechkin will not win the Rocket Richard Trophy as the leading goal scorer in the regular season.

Ha! Nope. Next. 0/1

2. Jakub Vrana will lead the Capitals in goals scored.

Wrong, but not as far off. As an added plus, the Vrana trade opened a spot for Daniel Sprong, who scored more goals in a Caps uniform than Vrana did. 0/2

3. Justin Schultz will make a big comeback.

I predicted a 35+ point season for Schultz in a bounce back year, and he was projected to finish with 33 points had he not missed 10 games with injury. So it wasn't a big comeback, but it was enough that this one is in the win column. 1/3

4. The Capitals will eliminate the slingshot zone entry on the power play.

Bang on. Teamwise, the team improved from last season's 19.4% rate to finish 17th to this season's 24.8% rate to finish 3rd. Given all of the injuries the team suffered to its top unit, this sharp of an improvement is magical. 

Not that either sample size was large, but the power play was worse in this season's playoffs compared to last season's. As we are frequently reminded, being reliant on the power play in the regular season can cause problems in the playoffs, when the opportunities dry up, and the refereeing tends to favor the defense a bit more than in the regular season. 

Big win in this prediction. 2/4

5. The Capitals will sport the best penalty killing in the NHL. 

Big improvement year over year, with the team finishing 5th, up 1.4%. Boston and Carolina, somehow, both improved as well, who along with the Knights and Lightning, finished ahead of the Caps. Half credit for this one. 2.5/5

6. Take way too many penalties.

The Caps finished 6th in PIM, which could be bad. But, the 5th place finish in majors and 2nd in total misconducts mitigates this number quite a bit. Bottom line, the team's 17th place finish for most minor penalties is a sign that the team plays physical, clean hockey. The problem is the -12 net penalty differential; the Capitals finished 24th in power play opportunities and 17th in times shorthanded. To add insult to injury, the Caps also allowed the most shorthanded goals per game - while, again, having the 8th fewest opportunities. That is horrific. No serious contender has splits this bad.

Bang on. 3.5/6

7. The Capitals will not win the division.

I added a prediction of a playoff division win, which did not happen. But the base prediction was correct, so this counts. 4.5/7

8. The Penguins will miss the playoffs. 

Lol. Right. 4.5/8

9. Taylor Hall will sign a long-term deal to stay in Buffalo.

Woof. 4.5/9

10. John Carlson will win the Norris Trophy.

I was right that the writers would pick the wrong Norris winner. That counts for something, right? 4.5/10 

11. Ilya Samsonov will be a Vezina Trophy finalist. 

I still stand by this prediction, that if he was healthy, he would have been a finalist. Well, I coulda been a contender. 4.5/11

12. The Capitals will trade for a backup goaltender. 

I knew Vanacek would be a good NHL goalie, but I had no idea he would steal the starting job for a season in which he wasn't even slotted to make the team. He does not get nearly enough credit for how incredible he played this season. Big ups to Vitek for making this one of the wronger answers. Is that even a word? 4.5/12

12. TJ Oshie will be selected in the Expansion Draft and will become the Seattle Kraken's inaugural captain. 

TBD...

13. Richard Panik, who never quite fit, will be traded during the season.

Bingo bango. Sprong (6th) took a third line job, not fourth, and Sheary (4th) also had a very strong season; both of the two finished top 6 in team goals. 5.5/12

14. Nicklas Backstrom, after another strong two-way season, will still not be a Selke candidate. 

This one almost doesn't count. 6.5/13

15. Evgeny Kuznetsov will not be suck on faceoffs this year.

Kuznetsov was not just suck on faceoffs this year, he actually got worse. 6.5/14

16. With 8 chances, Brad Marchand finally gets what's coming.  

Not only did facelicker not get what's coming, Top Line Tommy got an undue suspension at the Bruins' hands, and Marchand got the last laugh in the playoffs. Repeatedly. No spit, no lube. 6.5/15

17. Tom Wilson will be suspended.

Wrong reason, but bang on. 7.5/16

18. Tom Wilson will lead the league in penalty minutes. 

I knew it would be because of the Rangers, but I did not foresee Brendan Lemieux requesting a trade (unfortunately, at that). Bang on, especially with the 7 game suspension knocking out an eighth of his season. 8.5/17

19. Garnet Hathaway and Brendan Dillon will finish top 10 in penalty minutes. 

Hathaway's 66 was good for 8th while Dillon's 49 was good for 26th. Half credit for this one. 9/18

20. Lars Eller will continue his playoff heroics.

He was good, but heroic? No. 9/19

21. The Capitals will reach the Stanley Cup Final, but lose.

😂 9/20