Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Defending the castle

Karl Alzner, the Capitals top penalty killer, is gone.  Gone too is emerging two-way defenseman Nate Schmidt.  Also: Kevin Shattenkirk, thanks for nothing.  Three very big holes that, due to salary cap limitations, will likely be filled internally.

1st Pair

Orlov - Niskanen

Is there any question as to who slots in on the top pair?  Dmitry Orlov emerged last season as a two-way defenseman with budding potential.  He landed the hit of the year, got involved in the offense in a big way (increasing his shots on goal output by 28%), and was rewarded with an additional three and a half minutes of ice time per game.  Orlov was aptly called a "high event player", in reference to his hitting and missing opposing forwards.  The team will rely on him to create more good events and fewer bad events on the top pair, playing alongside Matt Niskanen, who has quietly become an elite defenseman.  Niskanen has become a reliable do-it-all blueliner, playing in all situations, eating big minutes, and leading the defense in scoring.  He could stand to improve his shooting percentage (an average shot length of 50.9 feet does not help), but that is the only knock on him as a player.  Niskanen is solid and has become the unquestioned leader of the defense corps.  Look for this pair to play upwards of 22 minutes nightly.

2nd Pair

Johansen - Carlson

Lucas Johansen will make the opening day roster, skating alongside the longest tenured Capitals defenseman.  What he does with this opportunity will speak volumes.  His older brother is known for his conditioning- problems with which seem to afflict young defensemen far more than young forwards- and we hope the apple did not fall far from the tree.  Pairing with John Carlson is ideal for Johansen's development, as the smooth skating Carlson will be able to continue leading the rush and rely on Johansen to protect the back end.  This trial by fire is necessary if the team hopes to compete this season and beyond.  Carlson will begin this season without Alzner by his side; Alzner, the second half of the Carlzner pairing, had been Carlson's roommate, defense pairing, and best friend for the past decade.  How he reacts will go a long way towards determining how well the Capitals perform.  Should he fail, the team goes with him.  Should he succeed, expect another strong regular season from the Capitals.

3rd Pair

Orpik - Bowey

Brooks Orpik, the elder statesman on his way out, remains an important leader on the backend, even if he will not be relied upon to do much on the ice.  We expect Orpik to eat up a lot of penalty kill minutes, and serve as a buffer while the top two pairs rest, but with his relative immobility worsening, all we can ask is that he limits his mistakes on the ice.  Madison Bowey will make his NHL debut this season, opening the year on the third pair.  Being waiver exempt, Bowey will be given a long look.  Playing next to Orpik may not be the best way to showcase his talents, but it should enable Bowey to develop the physical game necessary to build a long and successful career.

Extras

Chorney - Ness - Djoos

Taylor Chorney was drafted in the 2nd round of 2005 by the Edmonton Oilers, two weeks after they lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Carolina Hurricanes.  Much like the Oilers, Chorney has been a disappointment.  On a good team, he is a 7th defenseman at best, but he remains a cheap option should one of the starters get hurt.  Aaron Ness, like Chorney, played college hockey after being drafted in the second round.  Unlike Chorney, Ness has not made much of an impact.  Entering the season with so many question marks on defense gives Ness his best chance to stick around.  Christian Djoos has a solid shot at making the big squad this season, but as he is not waiver exempt, unless he wows management and the coaching staff, he will begin the year in the AHL.  Losing Greg Smith increases the likelihood that the Capitals suffer more man games lost to injury than in the past several seasons, so there will be opportunities for Djoos to shine.  It just will not be in October.

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