Matthew Phillips on waivers

With Sonny Milano's impending return against Montreal on Saturday, the Capitals were forced to make a roster move. Thus, the Matthew Phillips experiment seems to be coming to an end. And not a moment too soon.

Phillips is the definition of a tweener, a highly prized commodity who can contribute meaningfully to an AHL roster, helping drive the prospect pool to a deep playoff run, and fill in spots on the NHL roster when the need arises. Much like longtime Hershey Bear and Calder Cup Championship mainstay Chris Bourque, Phillips is undersized for the pro game, so he has to outwork the competition, often surprising them with his speed and skill in tight spaces. This works for a time. However, the Capitals are ostensibly a playoff contender, so the whole roster should be working hard. Hard work is not a distinguishing trait. Not anymore. 

 

Phillips is not as skilled as Alex DeBrincat, nor is he as gritty as Brendan Gallagher. He does not play center, nor does he penalty kill. He is a talented forward who can score when called upon, and is often streaky, but he cannot drive play and is not a difference maker by himself. Thus, he is at best a middle six forward. A poor man's Conor Sheary, whom he was supposed to replace, kinda.

But the Capitals are not a middle six forward away from the playoffs. There have been no games that the Capitals would have won had Phillips been given more ice time.

It is good that Phillips was given an honest shot, as he played on all four Caps lines at some point this season. He was also given a one-way contract for the first time, so he will earn significantly more than he ever has, regardless of what happens. As fans of the players (labor), we support this. 

 

Ideally, Phillips will go unclaimed and will help Hershey repeat as AHL champs. The second best (most reasonable? ehhh maybe not) outcome also involves him going unclaimed, but coming up as a black ace for a Capitals playoff run. Worst case is he gets claimed, but he would again have to be waived to be sent to their AHL team, giving him perhaps another chance to stick.

All this to say that Mike Sgarbossa, whom the Caps waived in October in order to send him to Hershey, where he has dominated again, remains on the NHL roster. With the trade rumors surrounding Nic Dowd, Nick Backstrom's tenure on LTIR, and Evgeny Kuznetsov's involvement in the NHL PA's Player Assistance Program, plenty of questions remain down the middle. Assuming the Caps move Dowd, Dylan Strome and Connor McMichael would be the two remaining centers. Thus, keeping Sgarbossa around, even with Hendrix Lapierre's waiver-exempt status, may be foreshadowing of more moves to come.

Jarmo Kekalainen fired

 The Columbus Blue Jackets are not a good hockey team. They are not exactly a hockey city, though Ohio State's program has come a long way. But southeastern Ohio is the home of backyard brawling football players and the eastern bound of the corn-fed baseball sluggers. So it should come as no surprise that the Blue Jackets have consistently struggled with attendance, never finishing above the bottom third of the league in terms of capacity percentage other than during the two seasons directly impacted by COVID (from 2021-23, many Canadian and Californian teams had strict attendance and social distancing rules, affecting their attendance numbers). 

Yet, during Jarko's ten year reign, which coincided with Columbus' realignment in the Metropolitan Division, the hapless Blue Jackets made the playoffs five times, scratching out their only playoff series win (a stunner over the record setting Tampa Bay Lightning). Before Jarko, the team had just one playoff appearance in its first thirteen seasons, in 2008-09, when the Jackets got swept in round one by eventual Cup loser Detroit.

Jarko was a famous big game hunter in Columbus, landing Artemi Panarin in a coup from Chicago, and shocking the hockey world by landing the biggest catch on the market in Johnny Gaudreau, signing the latter to a max-length seven year deal, for less term and money than the team he had left, Calgary, had offered. He was never afraid to roll the dice, famously losing Panarin to the allure of New York City and the money the Rangers could offer (and let's be real- the Rangers are competitive and the Jackets are not). And he made waves by trading for diva Patrik Laine, an immensely talented winger who has struggled mightily in Columbus, in the process acquiring Columbus-native Jack Roslovic, who has similarly disappointed.

Taking over the team shortly after longtime face of the franchise Rick Nash was traded to the Rangers, Jarmo set to work building a hockey culture in Columbus. Never a top free agent destination, Jarmo crafted a team of players who wanted to play for the Jackets.

However, in the end, that was simply not enough. Jarmo's gaffes, including hiring Mike Babcock, whose unceremonious resignation shortly before the season began foretold of the chaos to follow, were insurmountable. Despite landing the big names, the success did not follow; Gaudreau has been famously unproductive, and Laine had been as well, prior to entering the NHLPA's Player Assistance Program.

One has to wonder how the bungling of the team's defensive personnel affected Jarmo's firing. The team entered the season with eight rostered NHL defensemen, including rookie David Jiricek, who recently complained of not being in the NHL, competing on the highest level, like many of those drafted below him. For this to be made public, and to blow up to the extent that it did, could not have boded well for Jarmo. No news is good news, and when you are a bottom feeder, bad news is worse.

The oddest part of the firing is the timing; Columbus, sitting in last in the Eastern Conference, three points behind 15th place Ottawa, which has three games in hand, can only consider this a lost season (yet again). Laine, as mentioned earlier, is in the Player's Assistance Program, after struggling with an arm injury which derailed his season. Pascal Vincent, who was promoted to Head Coach in the wake of Babcock's resignation, is a first year head coach. Firing Jarmo mid-season just doesn't make sense.

 

How does firing him in February make the team better? Did he have an awful plan heading into the trade deadline? We have no doubt that Jarmo will easily land wherever he wants. I just hope it's out west.

NHL Network has got to go

First off, pretty much no one carries it, other than traditional cable/satellite. But no worries, the NHL has your back!. All you have to do is follow each link and input your info into each provider's website. Thanks guys, you brought the internet back to the 90s. Without the good parts.

To watch 82 Capitals games out of market, but within the US, one needs to subscribe to two separate services (Sling Blue + Sling TV Sports Extra & ESPN+). For just $40 + $11 + $11 + taxes + fees + whatever other nonsense. Is this the league's intention: to make fans jump through hoops to watch their favorite teams play? We want to turn on our devices and know that all 82 games are available live. This is how live sports fandom works, how it has always worked, and how it will always work. Why deviate from this?

Secondly, the broadcast sucks. It's awful. The on-air talent is middling, with some, like Kevin Weekes, whose name is being lent to give the platform some credibility, visibly stooping to carry a subpar product. Unfortunately, the broadcast is done from the studio, rather than in the arena, so the fans are left watching the talent comment on the same tv show we are watching. Twitch sucks, and forcing hockey fans to consume the product as if we were watching live streaming of some jerkoff commenting on a video game is a poor tactic. Further, the intermission shows are boring and flat,t he production quality is low, and the studio is boring. The ESPN/TNT product is significantly better and should be the focus and flagship broadcast of the NHL. 

Thirdly, the NHL's product should be a recap/highlights show, similar to NFL's red zone. And it should be broadcast weekly, at the same time, or it should flood the market. It can't be this "will they won't they" nonsense, with random games shown at random times on random days. Either give us something to look forward to or get the hell off the air.

That's all.

William Nylander Extends

The big news of the day is William Nylander’s monster extension: 8 years, $92mm, with a full NMC throughout. Good for William. He deserves it. He took a team deal last time, despite holding out until the last possible moment to resign. Morgan Rielly did too, sans holdout. 

No one else did though: John Tavares signed for his hometown team, his preferred destination, for the largest contract offer on the table, also with a full NMC throughout; while Mitch Marner also signed for his hometown team, with NMC protection in the last two years. Both Marner and JT took heavily front-loaded deals, with almost the entire value of the contract paid as signing bonus (thus protected- the two signed shortly after the previous lockout, which resulted in contract proration which did not affect fully guaranteed signing bonuses).

In line with Toronto’s history during the cap era, GM Brad Treliving gets bent over. After handing Calgary Flame newcomer Jonathan Huberdeau what may be the worst contract in NHL history, he gets the chance to one up himself by locking his new team into committing roughly 53% of the salary cap on just four players. Out of a roster of 23. The aforementioned Morgan Rielly takes up another 8.75%. 

For those of you doing the math at home, that’s nearly 62% of the salary cap committed to 21.7% of the roster.

It also seems unfeasible that the Leafs would let Marner walk when he becomes a UFA after next season, so even if they let JT explore his options when he too becomes a UFA after next season, the Leafs will still be in a bind. Marner will be turning 28 next May, and given his chemistry with goal scoring machine Auston Matthews, he’s a lock to increase his aav for what will likely be his last major deal, a deal which would see him not hit the open market until his mid-30s at the earliest. That will not come cheap. With the cap bump and JT heading out the door, one sees Marner landing comfortably above $12mm per annum, with trade protection. 

Assuming the cap jumps again to above $90mm (we are assuming the projected $4mm jump comes to fruition for next season’s upper limit, followed by at least $2.5mm more the following year, when Marner and JT both become UFAs), that’ll be a 40% commitment to three forwards. Nearly 50% counting Rielly, a defenseman.

Imagine going from ‘spend it like you earned it’ Kyle Dubas to ‘it’s just money’ Brad Treliving.

This whole situation is hilarious because the Leafs are such a money machine that the players have no reason to take a team deal- so this is what *should* happen. Nylander was underpaid on his last contract, and it was unlikely he’d repeat that folly this time around. Matthews, Marner, and JT have shown no inclination to take one either. They generate so much revenue for a team which sells out every night at extortionist prices, and it is only fair that athletes maximize their value - to a still wildly profitable franchise. But it is not a viable model in a cap league that values parity. To date, one player making $10mm or more has one a Stanley Cup: Jack Eichel, who makes $10mm for reigning champion Vegas. 

With this signing, Nylander will jump to the fifth highest cap hit in the league when his extension kicks in. Marner, the cheapest of the Big 4, will have the 11th. 

Toronto obviously isn’t going to stop being the engine that drives the sport. But Toronto’s NHL team cannot reasonably expect to win unless they have lots of guys on ELCs, which they don’t have because Dubas emptied the cupboard to fill in the gaps with overpaid deadline deals.

Is it possible for Big 4 to drive 16 wins? Yes, but it is very unlikely. The Capitals don’t win in 2018,without DSP on the 4th line. Knights had guys like Kolesar and Barbashev on their fourth line, along with Shea Theodore and Chandler Stephenson making a laughable $5.2mm and $2.75mm per year, respectively. The Leafs have Pontus Holmberg, Bobby McMann, etc. No offense to those guys, but I don’t see them scoring much in a grindfest like vs Florida or Boston. Matthew Knies is a great insert, performing above his aav, but he is not enough.

All this to say, Nylander can skate and Matthews is such a competitor that I can see the two still driving the bus in five years, like Ovechkin, *finally* winning. But the Leafs are set up to continue wasting Auston’s youth on regular season goals. With his health a big question already, the Leafs should be prioritizing striking quickly. Thankfully, for our sake as Caps fans, Leafs management disagrees. 

It’s Miro Time!

First shift I love Miro. He skates at the net like it owes him money