Five days and three Capitals games have passed since Monday's trade deadline, headlined by the blockbuster deal the Capitals struck with the Detroit Red Wings. Your favorite blogger, for fear of making an emotional plea, wanted to wait to post the recap. This post was largely drafted on Monday, but was edited to include up to date statistics, which strengthen the position laid out hereafter.
The trade-
Washington Capitals receive:
Anthony Mantha
Salary cap flexibility
Cost certainty
Detroit Red Wings receive:
Jakub Vrana
Richard Panik
2021 1st round draft pick
2022 2nd round draft pick
So far, Anthony Mantha has slotted in on the second line, matched with Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie, and has played around two and a half minutes on the second power unit (not counting today's ace performance against the Flyers). We suspect that this will be his typical usage moving forward, although the Capitals top 9 tends to get shaken up frequently as Coach Laviolette looks for favorable match-ups, tries to take advantage of the hot hand, or to wake up underperformers. Mantha has also scored in each of his first three games, matching the team record set by Sergei Berezin back in the halcyon days of the Jagr era, adding one assist in his team debut. He has also added four hits, three blocks, ten shots on goal, one takeaway, and three giveaways.
Not bad for a newcomer who had oddly fallen out of favor seven months after signing his big contract (4 years, $22.8 million, with a year 4 salary of $6.5 million).
Mantha, importantly, will be a UFA after his current contract plays out; he will turn 30 prior to beginning his next deal. Jakub Vrana, two years younger than Mantha, is an arbitration-eligible pending RFA, currently making $3.35 million in the second year of his bridge deal signed after his breakout 2018-19 season during which he scored then career highs with 24 goals and 23 assists in 82 games. Vrana improved significantly during last year's COVID shortened season, during which he set new career marks with 25 goals and 27 assists in 69 games (nice). Vrana, however, was a ghost in back to back playoffs, scoring a whopping 0 points over his last 15 playoff games, along with a -8 and 4 minor penalties. No bueno. Regardless, Vrana was due a significant raise, not only for his proven secondary scoring ability, but also his ability to generate off the rush; today's game rewards fast players who can score - few in the league are better than Vrana at doing just that.
Here's where things get sticky. Vrana is represented by J.P. Barry, an agent who counts among his clients several elite players on relatively team friendly deals. Stars such as David Pastrnak (6 years, $40 million), Morgan Rielly (6 years, $30 million), Dougie Hamilton (6 years, $34.5 million), Filip Forsberg (6 years, $36 million), and Mathew Barzal (3 years, $21 million), are all woefully underpaid. Vrana also scores 5v5 at an elite rate; during the two year period covering 2018-2020, Vrana's 5v5 goals per 60 is 6th among regular NHLers, behind only Dominik Kubalik, Alexander Ovechkin, Brendan Gallagher, Auston Matthews, and Oliver Bjorkstrand, and is slightly ahead (1.40 vs 1.39) of Jake Guentzel. Guentzel, a playoff hero as a rookie, signed for 5 years, $30 million, with a limited no trade clause, out of his entry level deal; Kubalik, with a smaller body of work, signed a 2 year bridge deal worth $7.4 million. Even accounting for a team discount, we can assume Vrana would land in the $5.5-6 million per year range, given his arbitration rights, and that his next contract will likely buy several years of UFA status.
However, we are figuring that Vrana neither wants to play in Ovechkin's shadow, nor does he want to play on a short term deal. A five year deal will likely cost north of $6 million per year. Even accounting for the relatively likely loss of T.J. Oshie (or Dmitry Orlov) to the Kraken, the Capitals will have to resign both Alex Ovechkin and Ilya Samsonov, in a flat cap era. Given that the team is currently projected to have around $9.5 million of cap space prior to signing either of them, the money saved by the expansion draft likely would not cover Vrana's well deserved salary demands. Factoring in, again, both Vrana's arbitration eligibility and his apparent disgruntlement over his usage, as well as the realistic possibilities of a holdout and an offer sheet, there did not appear to be much runway to wrap up Vrana.
Further, the team is big and plays a heavy game. Vrana is a speedster who struggles in the corners, does not kill penalties (he actually plays less PK time than Ovechkin - shocker), and had recently been a healthy scratch under Coach Laviolette. Making a move for Mantha, who clocks in at 6'5" and 234 lbs., just simply made sense. The trade gives the opportunity to a still young player to shine elsewhere, brings the Capitals a player who fits their style, and provides cost certainty and cap relief. Richard Panik never quite fit with the Capitals, and moving his $2.75 million cap hit, along with the conservative estimate of $5.5 million for Vrana, in exchange for Mantha's $5.75 million, gives the Capitals about $2.5 million per year of wiggle room.
In sum, the Capitals get a player who better fits their rugged style of play, $2.5 million of cap space, and cost certainty moving forward. The Red Wings gain an elite scorer who should gel nicely with the fleet of foot Dylan Larkin, a serviceable Richard Panik, a presumably (hopefully) late 1st round pick this season, and a 2nd rounder next season. It may be a steep price to pay, as we all loved Vrana and the infectious energy he brought to the room and the blazing speed he brought to the ice, but the deal had to be made. The Capitals may lose in the long run, as Vrana can certainly become a 40 goal scoring feature winger, but Mantha gives the team a better shot to win today. And with the Ovechkin era waning, that may be all that matters. One more shot at a Cup. We'll take it.
