Winners and losers, off-season edition

Following the excitement of the first expansion draft in almost two decades, the NHL off-season has been a dud.  

In terms of both term and value, the biggest free agent deal so far has been Alexander Radulov's 5 year robbery for $31.5 million.  Kevin Shattenkirk predictably signed for a lot of money ($26.6 million), though surprisingly for only four years.  Karl Alzner tied Radulov's term in a deal worth $23.125 million.  Beyond those deals, nothing stands out beyond salty veterans getting overpaid by teams desperate to win, but are no closer to doing so than they were on June 30th.  Sprinkle in a few trades, and the riveting drama of Kovalchuk's latest BronBron impression, and we are in for a boring July.

Winners:

Pittsburgh Penguins:

GM Jim Rutherford spent much time complaining about physicality, and surprisingly addressed the problem in a big way by trading for Ryan Reaves.  The price may have been a tad high, but Reaves is the best fourth liner in the game today, and the Penguins are better for it.  Justin Schultz signed a rich contract, but the Penguins avoided term, Antti Niemi signed for a very reasonable contract to be a serviceable backup, and ineffective Trevor Daley was replaced by Matt Hunwick.  The Penguins still have some cap space remaining, so they may acquire another center, but for the time being, they just keep winning.

Grade: A+

Nashville Predators:

Predictably, the Predators are retooling for another run at the Cup.  They overpaid for Nick Bonino, but he is an upgrade over Colin Wilson, who was traded for a future draft pick.  After losing James Neal to Las Vegas, the Predators brought back Scott Hartnell, who posted similar numbers despite playing a defensive role.  Adding Alexei Emelin to the already stacked defense will help relieve some of the penalty killing pressure on the top four, allowing them to focus on moving play in the right direction.

Grade: A-

New Jersey Devils

After trading for Mirco Mueller, a defenseman with plenty of upside, the Devils have had a quietly productive off-season, highlighted, of course, by drafting first overall.  They parted with Mike Cammalleri and Devante Smith-Pelly, which freed up additional cap space, overpaid for Brian Boyle, and won the lopsided divisional trade with Washington for Marcus Johansson.  With a few roster spots left to fill out, New Jersey has put together a superb off-season.

Grade: A-

Mixed Bag:

Dallas Stars

Another team that wins by not losing, Dallas overpaid, or overcommitted for Alexander Radulov, though he is a welcome addition to a team with plenty of offensive firepower.  Adding Martin Hanzal, though also at a higher cost than necessary, is helpful because he provides flexibility to the top six.  The trade for Marc Methot was smart; Dallas looks like the big winner today, though he will not look nearly as good without Erik Karlsson by his side.  Antti Niemi could not get it together in goal for Dallas, but replacing him with Mike McKenna is a weak move for a playoff-bound team.  Letting Ales Hemsky and Jiri Hudler walk was helpful too.  

Grade: B/B+

Anaheim Ducks

Patrick Eaves signed a fair extension to continue his offensive prowess next to Ryan Getzlaf for the next three seasons.  Ryan Miller was brought in to replace Jonathan Bernier as backup goaltender, Cam Fowler, who was almost run out of town two years ago, will be a Duck for life.  Most importantly, the Ducks kept their core together, losing Shea Theodore instead of one of their more prized defensemen in the expansion draft.  They lost some grit with the departures of Nate Thompson and Ryan Garbutt, but grinders are easy to replace.  It is hard to say the Ducks are better than they were on June 30th, but they were two games from the Stanley Cup, so they win by not losing.

Grade: B

More to come...

Nail Yakupov will not be tendered offer; becomes UFA

In an earlier post, I briefly touched on the possibility of potential bust Nail Yakupov being a target for the Capitals in free agency.  Now that the news is official, it is time to evaluate whether or not Yakupov is worth a roster slot, and if so, at what cost.

The main reason we are even in a position to discuss a 23 year old former #1 overall draft pick in unrestricted free agency is because of how underwhelming Yakupov has been as a player.  Lazy, uninterested, and/or ineffective, Yakupov has been hugely disappointing.  

However, there is value in that, as Brett Connolly can attest to: Connolly, himself a high first round draftee who has largely underwhelmed, set a career high with 15 goals, good for 7th on a stacked Capitals roster, is due for a raise over the $800k he earned this past season.  While Yakupov may not sign for quite as little as Connolly did, he can provide similar offense to Wilson or Winnik for less financial commitment.

Assuming Yakupov continues to play an average of 78% of his team's games (68 games), and scores at his average goals/minute, he would score 9 goals, or 2 more than Wilson, along with 11 assists.  This calculation also assumes that Yakupov would play the same 10 minutes per game that Connolly logged last year.  However, for most of his short career, including last year's aberration, Yakupov has generated shots well: his 8.07 SOG/60 falls somewhere between Ryan Kesler's 7.42 and Connor McDavid's 8.27.  Through 4 years in Edmonton, he averaged 8.43 SOG/60, though his scoring projections would be the same.

Connolly, by contrast, has averaged 6.91 SOG/60; his 6.88 with the Capitals brought the average down marginally.

All this has to be further put into context.  Since his outstanding rookie year, during which he was on pace for 29 goals had the NHL season not begun in January, he has scored on 7.5% of his shots on goal.  Granted his shooting 21% as a rookie was unsustainable, but he probably can convert better than what he has since.  Even a moderate improvement, to the league average for forwards of 10.753%, would make a profound difference of roughly an additional 3 goals per season.

For most of his career, Yakupov has played more prominent roles on far less talented teams.  While he may not be the best fit for fourth line duty, and regular third line work may be too much to ask, tasking him with playing spot duty alongside speedsters like Kuznetsov and Burakovsky/Johansson, or with bulls like Eller and Wilson could prove that Yakupov is the needle in the haystack.

For a team desperate for cap room, that cheap value may be just what is needed.

That is, unless he goes for the safe money in Russia.  

TJ Oshie should be the captain of the Capitals

TJ Oshie signed an 8 year, team friendly contract, leaving a lot of money on the table in favor of stability and the flexibility to play the role to which he is best suited - digging for pucks and scoring hard goals.  This kind of team-oriented behavior, along with the way he conducts himself on and off the ice, is what leaders are made from.

Joe Thornton is a prime example of what can happen when the pressure to lead is too great; he posted monster numbers for years in San Jose, but with little to show for it.  Since having his captaincy taken away, the Sharks have been much more successful, and Thornton still led from the front.  Only, unlike Ovechkin, he did not have the burden of the C sewn onto his jersey, the heaviest letter in sports.

Ovechkin has matured greatly, but his style of leadership is obviously not the answer to the team's problems.  Even when surrounded by a roster full of talented former first-round draft picks, multiple Cup winners, and Mr. Game 7 himself, the team falls flat.  It is time for a drastic change.  Ovechkin should not be the captain of this team.

The Capitals should immediately trade Philipp Grubauer

With Nate Schmidt off to Vegas, and several teams looking for solid goaltending, the Capitals have a good case to trade Grubauer.

Grubauer is a restricted free agent, coming off a two-year bridge deal which saw him earn $750,000 annually.  As a backup, Grubauer has not started much, but he saw action in a career high 24 games last season, posting insane numbers.  Considering the Capitals overstrength in goal, and their insistence on reacquiring Pheonix Copley in the Shattenkirk trade, there is no need to keep Grubauer on the roster when he can be used to valuable acquire assets.

Potential trade partners:

Calgary Flames: Mike Smith is a serviceable starting goalie, but he is 35 years old and his best days are behind him.  The next one is several years away.  A playoff bound team needs more assurances in goal.  Potential return: several high draft picks.

Edmonton Oilers: Cam Talbot is solid in goal, but played more than he should have.  Backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit has played in 14 career games, posting subpar totals.  A team expected to make a deep playoff run would benefit from having a solid fail-safe, if for no reason other than injury concerns from an overplayed starting 'tender.  Potential return: Jordan Eberle and a mid-round draft pick in a cap friendly trade involving Orpik going the other way.  (editor's note: Eberle has since been traded to the Islanders for Ryan Strome).  Darnell Nurse?

Boston Bruins: Tuukka Rask has regressed considerably since winning the Vezina in 2014, providing the Bruins with a lower quality start percentage in three successive seasons.  Rask was downright awful in 2016-17; while his fantasy numbers might not have been bad, his real hockey numbers were atrocious.  He is only 30, so it is reasonable to expect some normalization of his numbers, but he might not be the strong backstop he once was.  For an aging team with an unknown quantity in Malcolm Subban, it may be prudent to make the move for a proven NHL goaltender.  Potential return: Jakub Zboril or Zach Senyshyn and a late draft pick.

Chicago Blackhawks: Corey Crawford has never made more than 58 starts in a season, so Grubauer would have plenty of opportunity to play in the Windy City.  Bringing in the restricted free agent would also provide financial flexibility for a team desperate for breathing room.  While Crawford shows no signs of slowing down, $6 million is a lot to pay for a 32 year old goaltender who may soon become expendable.  Potential return: Alex DeBrincat and a mid-round pick.

Other targets: Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Philadelphia Flyers, Vancouver Canucks

Filling out the defense

It is a foregone conclusion that the Capitals will ice a drastically different roster next season.  Just how effective at making changes the Capitals are remains to be seen.  Having previously covered some possible replacements for outgoing forwards, it is time to turn to the other side of the puck.

Out:

Karl Alzner: Alzner has been a mainstay on the blue line since opening night 2010, having played in 540 consecutive regular season games.  Consistently flying under the radar as a quiet complementary player, Alzner, like Edmonton's Kris Russell, is a benchmark for the stats vs. eyes test, who gets clobbered year after year in puck possession stats.  It will be difficult to replace him on the penalty kill, but he is due for a considerable raise over the $2.8 million he made this season.

Kevin Shattenkirk: The biggest deadline deal in Capitals history was, in true Caps fashion, all for show.  The team had no problem on the powerplay, so bringing in another quarterback never made much sense anyway.  However, Kevin will have no shortage of suitors, and has earned the huge paycheck he will have for the foreseeable future.  But that future will not be in Washington.

Dmitry Orlov: Nothing is decided yet, but Orlov will certainly have a pretty offer from the KHL to return home.  Hopefully this does not happen, as Orlov has developed in a fine second pair defenseman who surprisingly landed the best hit of the season for the Capitals, while playing in all situations of every game.  There is a reasonable chance Orlov will be gone next year.

There is a lot of value on the market, either available through free agency, or trade (less ideal).  The question is whether that fits within the Capitals budget:

Brian Campbell: The former Cup winner is old and not as mobile as in his heyday, but will neither command a high salary nor top minutes.  But Campbell is a winner, which would be a welcome change.

Eric Gryba: Not particularly mobile, but posted positive shot differentials in part time duty and is a steady, stay at home defenseman who can be an effective penalty killer.

Yannick Weber: He does not see the toughest assignments, but in a depth role, would be useful.

Eric Gudbranson: The oft-injured former Panther played just 30 games after being traded to the Canucks.  He is certainly due a significant raise, but may be worth freeing up cap space for, since he is 24 and a restricted free agent.  Philipp Grubauer will almost assuredly be chosen by Las Vegas, and with Ryan Miller out in Vancouver, a one-for-one swap would help both teams if the Capitals feel that Orlov will jump across the pond.

Matt Hunwick: He may resign with Toronto, and for good reason, as the Leafs figure to be highly competitive next season.  But a 32 year old without much long-term upside may be squeezed out of the Leafs roster.  Hunwick would be a solid third pairing defenseman who plays a lot on the penalty kill.

Other names: Dylan McIlrath, Fedor Tyutin, Deryk Engelland.

One thing is clear: the Capitals need to promote from within.  Djoos and Bowey figure to both get long looks in the preseason.