The Morning After Pill

The Washington Capitals surprisingly outshot the Columbus Blue Jackets last night, though your hometown heroes got fewer pucks in the net, losing 4-3 in overtime.  On home ice.  In Game 1.

Folks, we have been down this road before.  An opposing player was able to knock out a top four defenseman unchecked, Jakub Vrana apologists cry bloody murder because the forward with the lowest corsi was buried in ice time, and the Capitals' dominant power play was not enough to punch home a win.

Artemi Panarin delivered a Hall of Fame quality performance, including potting a beautiful OT winner from a tough angle.  Worse is that the Capitals had numbers and good positioning.  Panarin is just that good.

The Capitals were able to jump on the Jackets at the end of the first, led by Evgeny Kuznetsov's dominant skating, to take a 2-0 lead.

What we would like to see next game:

• Philipp Grubauer keeps the net.  He played well.

• Christian Djoos in the lineup.  If Michal Kempny is good to go, then Jakub Jerabek should sit.  He was invisible.  With five defensemen in a 66 minute game, he played 13:17.  NEXT!

• Obviously, if Jay Beagle is healthy, then he plays and Chandler Stephenson sits.  If Beagle is not good to go, then Stephenson still sits, and Shane Gersich (we love how his name resembles our newest SCOTUS justice) plays.  Stephenson was the only player to not manage a shot attempt - Brooks Orpik got 4!

• Speaking of Brooks, he had a hell of a game.  He only played 19:39 in spite of Kempny's early injury, but managed to shine during this time, finishing with a 60.7 corsi rating and a big hit on Ian Cole that sent the latter's stick flying like a helicopter.

• No other changes.  Keep everything else exactly the same.  Minor tinkering is okay.  Wholesale roster makeovers are bad.

Stay tuned for Game 2 on Sunday.

Playoff predictions: first round

The most exciting time in sports, hockey's second season, begins tonight.  For the next two weeks, the NHL's sweet sixteen will do battle for the chance to advance to the second round, that mythical but oh-too-real glass ceiling the Capitals seem unable to shatter.  But first, our bold predictions.

Eastern Conference

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New Jersey Devils

It was a mistake to trade Vladislav Namestnikov, who at times drove play on what was the best line in hockey.  J.T. Miller shone in Tampa, and Ryan McDonagh is an improvement on an already deep defensive corps, but the hit to the top line chemistry may be too much to overcome.  Nikita Kucherov, one of the most potent snipers in the game, was noticeably less effective without Namestnikov on his opposite wing, managing only 6 goals in 17 games after the trade deadline.  With Steven Stamkos's health up in the air, Tampa's ability to match New Jersey's top line offense may be muted, but make no mistake: this is an elite team stacked with talent throughout.  Led by Hart Trophy candidate Taylor Hall, who will be making his long-awaited playoff debut tomorrow, the Devils will have their hands full.  Marcus Johansson was supposed to be a key cog, but he has been out since January with concussion problems.  Winning the right to draft Nico Hischier was a blessing, but the team is in the first year of a long rebuild.  Tampa overwhelms New Jersey in 5.

Washington Capitals vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

What else can be said that has not been beaten to death already?  Your Washington Capitals impressed the field, far exceeding expectations in spite of serious underlying problems.  The team was strong down the stretch too, finishing 15-7 since acquiring Michal Kempny.  Since Philipp Grubauer took over the starting role, the team has been particularly scorching, and he was rewarded with the start in Game 1.  But the woes get worse when considering just how top heavy this team is: Alex Ovechkin scored 18.9% of the team's goals; if the Capitals win the Cup, that will be the largest share of team goals since Teemu Selanne in 2007.  A disciplined team can limit their exposure to the greatest shooter of all time by simply staying out of the box.  Unfortunately, the first round opponent is highly disciplined: Columbus was shorthanded just 214 times.  Only Carolina stayed out of the box more.  Sergei Bobrovsky was his usual dominant self, though he took a step back from last year.  The bigger concern is the Bread Man, who controlled play at even strength better than almost the whole circuit.  If the Capitals can jump on Columbus' mistakes, and keep out of the box themselves, this series should be a breeze.  Realistically, this goes the distance.  Washington in 7.

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Boston head coach Bruce Cassidy was a disappointment behind the bench in Washington, losing in dramatic fashion to Tampa Bay before tanking for Ovechkin.  Back in the league for the first time since 2003, he has a lot to prove.  Bouncing back from two straight seasons of golfing in April, the Bruins are the best team in the East, led by an 80 year old defenseman and a generational talent in Patrice Bergeron.  Toronto rode the backs of their rookies last year to a six game defeat at the hands of the Capitals, and they will fall short of expectations this year, as they draw the toughest slot in the tournament.  Auston Mathews was banged up, but managed to score a point per game, and is developing into a dominant center in his own right.  But the Bruins will prove too much for the youngster and his cadre, as Boston wins handily, in 5.

No time to write the others, so a quick dump:

Pitt over Philly in 6
Nashville over Colorado in 5
Winnipeg over Minnesota in 4
LA over Vegas in 7
Anaheim over San Jose in 5

Capitals clinch third straight Metropolitan Division title

With a huge win in Pittsburgh last night, the Washington Capitals captured the Metropolitan Division title for the third straight season.  This marks the eighth time in Alex Ovechkin's thirteen seasons that the Caps will finish tops in their division (previously the Southeast).

What's more is the performance on the ice last night.  Philipp Grubauer's magical 2018 continued, as he saved 37 shots in the 3-1 victory, nearly pitching a shutout save for yet another defensive breakdown.  Jakub Vrana was the backchecker but missed his mark, forcing Dmitry Orlov to take the low man, which left Patric Hornqvist wide open for a goal that even Patrik Stefan would bang.

In spite of that blunder (and many others), though, Grubauer stood tall.  As we have argued before here at Contrarian Sports, Grubauer has earned the starting job, leading the team when the defense has failed- something starter Braden Holtby has not been able to do this season.

Grubauer was snakebitten to start the season, earning his first win (3-1 home win over Tampa Bay) in his 9th game, and 7th start.  Since then, however, he has been the man, with a .940 save percent and an absolutely insane 1.838 GAA to go with 3 shutouts, going 15-4-2 during his run.  What's more: 18 of his 27 starts are on the road, and he has posted a respectable 9-6-3 record; Philipp is 1-3 when starting the second game of a back-to-back, or 8-3-3 when the team is rested.

His even strength save percent is .935, on par with Sergei Bobrovsky, Marc-Andre Fleury, and likely Vezina winner Pekka Rinne.  Holtby has a respectable .915, which is a far cry from the .930 career even strength save percent he has earned prior to 2017-18.

It is worth noting that despite his woes, Holtby has posted a great record against Eastern Conference playoff teams: 12-5-2.  So all is not lost.  However, we have seen time and time again that the better goalie is not necessarily the winner; the hot goalie is.

And right now, Grubauer is the hot hand.  

A Persistent Problem

Even in today's watered down game, playing a home-and-home with a division rival usually leads to bad blood.  This is especially true when one team has something to play for besides points in the standings.  

The Washington Capitals and New York Islanders matched up on Thursday and Friday, in what promised to be a physical pair of games.  The Islanders delivered; the Capitals, not so much.

In 2015, the two played an incredibly physical series by today's standards, capped off with Tom Wilson ending Lubomir Visnovsky's career in one of the most brutal hits we have seen post-lockout.  The severely outmatched Islanders were only able to respond by letting Anders Lee get pounded by pre-suspension Wilson, who was still playing with reckless abandon.

This new Capitals squad, however, has no identity.  No longer do the Capitals have a stifling defense, three scoring lines, and a Vezina candidate in goal.  Beyond TomLineTommy, the Capitals physical response is limited to an 80 year Brooks Orpik, and a cadre of non-fighters who watch their teammates get steamrolled like back in the good ol' Bruce Boudreau days.

Cal Clutterbuck is a rat, incredibly effective at getting under the opponent's skin.  The Thursday match-up saw him get under Wilson's skin; the Friday match-up saw him take a run at hot streak TJ Oshie, who has been dealing with concussion issues.  Thomas Hickey is scrappy too, always playing on the edge; on Friday he rammed Jakub Vrana into the boards well after the whistle, and injured Evgeny Kuznetsov with a well placed and timed slash.  

And the Capitals responded with the powerplay.  It is good to win on the scoresheet, but it is betterto protect your teammates- with talent on the shelf, it is impossible to win.  

At Contrarian Sports, we sadly recognize that the age of the true enforcer is gone.  However, that does not mean the Capitals have to be so damn easy to play against.  What is truly puzzling is that Barry Trotz, a coach well known for not developing youth talent, would consistently prefer to play guys like Alex Chiasson, Devante Smith-Pelly, and Chandler Stephenson 12 minutes per game, while encouraging Wilson to clean up his game, instead of deploying even one guy to provide some semblance of physicality beyond the top trio of forwards.

Again, this does not mean the Capitals should bring in a guy like Joel Rechlicz, as much as we would love that.  But, with guys like Antoine Roussel, Zack Kassian, and Nick Ritchie playing significant roles and bringing grit, actual grit, not repeatedly-get-hammered-and-get-up-just-to-get-clobbered-again "grit" the Capitals seem to love so much, the proof is out there that scrappy forwards still very much belong in the game (there is no sense bringing up Matt Tkachuk, Ryan Hartman, Austin Watson, etc., because they were highly rated prospects whom the Capitals obviously had no real opportunity to target).  

It is embarrassing that the Capitals now have to enter another tough stretch of games, kicked off with a road game in Philly, without the team's second top scorer, who may be out for a significant amount of time.  Injuries happen- but injuries caused at the hands of an opponent without fear of retribution only cause more injuries to occur.

This team has enough hurdles already; no need to add more by getting pushed around and hurt.

A good problem to have

Braden Holtby has put together a truly remarkable career to date, stringing together three straight 40-win seasons and grabbing some major hardware along the way.  This season, however, without a strong defensive core and puck hogs in the forward ranks, his performance has crashed back down to Earth, ranking 25th amongst starters in save percentage and 27th in goals against average.  He has been far from elite at stopping high danger shots, and he has gotten pulled 7 times in 48 starts (14.6%) so far this season after averaging fewer than 5 per season since becoming the full-time starter (6.9%).

While part of the problem comes from having a substandard defense in front of him, the majority of the problem is self-defeating: Holtby's price tag precludes the Capitals from fixing the underlying issues in front of him.  Braden is due $17MM over the next three seasons, with a cap hit of $6.1MM.  His cap hit is 6th among goaltenders.  Fifteen goaltenders have a cap hit of $5MM or more; of them, just four are Cup winners, with Jonathan Quick, Corey Crawford, and Marc-Andre Fleury winning as starters within two years of signing their large contracts (Fleury and Tuukka Rask have won as backups as well).

In comparison, other Cup winning starting goaltenders in the salary cap era Antti Niemi, Matt Murray, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Cam Ward, and Dominik Hasek came at bargain prices.  (Tim Thomas had a cap hit of $5MM).

It may not be prudent to give up on a Vezina winner with Holtby's pedigree, but the Capitals have consistently developed goaltenders, and have a well stocked pipeline.

What may be best is to shop Holtby and use him to acquire defensive help and salary cap breathing room.

As it stands, Philipp Grubauer has the best save percentage in the league since 2018 began.  He is unproven as a starter, but has been hailed as "the next thing", much like Martin Jones and Antti Raanta were a few years ago.  With Ilya Samsonov expected to make the journey across the ocean next year, and Pheonix Copley, Vitek Vanecek, and Adam Carlson in the minors, training camp will be crowded enough.

Considering the potential trade market in the summer, including defensemen Erik Karlsson and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, it could be a big year for the Capitals, if they clear the cap space to make waves.  In typical DC fashion, it may come as too little, too late.