The Capitals will win tonight

Down two games to none, having lost consecutive home games in embarrassing fashion, the Capitals will come out of the gates in Pittsburgh tonight firing on all cylinders.  Look for Washington to put the pressure on early, by dumping the puck and trying to knock the Penguins defenders into next week.

If there is a silver lining, it is that the Penguins are getting worn down.  Having blocked 62 shots through two games, and being outhit 78-36 has taken its toll: Pittsburgh, already down Letang, add three more to the injury ledger in Hornqvist, Kuhnhackl, and Hainsey, although the latter two figure to play tonight.

The Capitals need to focus on their strengths, namely puck possession and taking advantage of their collective heft, instead of trying to match Pittsburgh's advantage in speed.  The heaviest team in the East is not going to win many footraces.  Washington was built to take the blue line by force, win battles along the boards, and to slow down and cycle down low.  They are great at winning rebounds in front of the goal, but in order to do so, Oshie and Williams, who are not exactly fleet of foot, need the opportunity to get there.  That does not happen much in the transition game.

At least not against Apolo Ohno dressed in black and yellow.

Washington breaks the drought and builds confidence tonight with a big win: 4-1.

Second round predictions: Western Conference

With the first two games of the second round beginning tonight, and the magic 8-ball dusted off, it is time to make bold predictions as to who will advance.

(3) St. Louis Blues vs. (WC2) Nashville Predators

The Blues stole the series from Minnesota despite being badly outshot, losing the majority of faceoffs in every zone, and being outplayed.  Jake Allen was the star of the show, Vladimir Sobotka made a triumphant return from Russia to spark the offense, and the Blues made up for three massive roster losses since last year's disappointment against the Sharks.  This goes to show just how finicky the playoffs really are.  Anything can, and this year, did happen, as the only team to seriously contend for the Capitals regular season crown fell short.

Did I mention Bruce Boudreau is the coach?  That explains a lot.

Big plus to Mike Yeo for beating his former team, in dramatic fashion too.

The Predators, much like the Blues, were heavy underdogs going into the series, but their vanquished opponents, too, are golfing.  Routing the Blackhawks, while shutting them out twice in the United Center, was unpredictable to say the least.

Pekka Rinne was back to normal, and the Predators are looking very smart after trading Shea Weber for PK Subban.  Their luck will continue as they look to advance to their first conference final in franchise history.

Prediction: Nashville in 5

(1) Anaheim Ducks vs. (2) Edmonton Oilers

The pesky Ducks, led again by Stanley Cup winner Randy Carlyle, rolled over the upstart Calgary Flames.  This was made more impressive by the injuries to the defense corps of Anaheim, partly at the hands of Flames captain Mark Giordano.  Fortunately for Ducks fans, the team stood up for their defenseman (unlike the Capitals who chose to take cheapshots and hand away powerplays while never addressing the issue), and rallied around each other and sent the Flames to the links early.

Connor McDavid is the best player in the league.  He skates like Bobby Orr, stickhandles like Alexei Kovalev, and picks corners like Pavel Bure.  He also makes everyone around him better, to which Pat Maroon and his expected pay raise can attest.  McDavid is the difference maker in every game, and it is hard to pick against him.

Prediction: Edmonton in 7

Paint by numbers

With the second season well underway, some trends have emerged.

Scoring is down from last year, despite the significant uptick during the regular season.  The first round games were far closer, with 28 of the 42 games played being won by a single goal, compared to 27 of 47 last year.  19 games this year went to overtime, with 2 being settled during the second overtime, as compared to last year resulting in 7 overtime finishes with 3 double overtime results.  Last year only saw 20 overtime games throughout the playoffs.

There have been 8 shutouts so far, and 9 in the first round last year.

However, in spite of the relative closeness, there have been two sweeps thus far, which did not occur at all last postseason.

Fights were down as expected, but more interestingly, extracurriculars were too, with a grand total of 5 misconducts, compared to 25 last year.  No one was taking a pound of flesh, despite a few dirty hits and goalie bumps.

Last year saw two upsets in the first round.  This year we saw three.

The two worst teams at faceoffs in the first round, St. Louis and Washington, both advanced.  St. Louis had the worst zone starts, and only won 42.3% of the faceoffs taken in the defensive zone, were outshot in all but one game, but Jake Allen stood on his head.

Sometimes, the bounces are in your favor.  That certainly was the case for the Blues.

Second round predictions: Eastern Conference

The results of my first round predictions were grim: I only correctly picked the Capitals to advance in the East, and the Oilers and Ducks in the West.  This is the nature of playoff hockey, and why we love it so much.  The unpredictability keeps us glued to the couch for two (often disappointing) months.

Still, 3/8 is not so bad, considering no one in the world had the Predators sweeping a still very good Blackhawks team. But I am a Capitals fan, so falling short of expectations is the name of the game.  No harm, no foul.

As we move on to the second round tomorrow evening, with oddly both Western series beginning on the same day, we take a breath, restock the fridge, and prepare for disappointment.

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (2) Pittsburgh Penguins

Much has been written of this playoff matchup between the top two teams in the regular season.  Mostly, the public response has been negative.  While not perfect, the current format, based on that of 1981-82, allows for teams to play year after year when it matters most, whereas the previous format would see the division champions ranked as the two top seeds with the remaining slots filled by the next six teams in the conference, making repeated playoff matchups far less frequent. 

However, instead of fretting over the format, we should focus on the likelihood that the winner of this series will go on to win the Stanley Cup, as it did last year and twice in the early '90s. 

The Capitals have never been more motivated to play hard than they are now - after a surprisingly tough battle with the Maple Leafs over a six game series which saw every game decided by a single goal, they now face their nemesis, their greatest rival, the biggest bump on the road to success, a team they have not beaten in a playoff series since 1994.  The x-factor in this series is health.  The Capitals have a question mark on defense with Alzner missing games for the first time in several years, but having acquired depth in Shattenkirk, they have seven NHL defensemen on the roster. 

The Penguins, having lost Letang for the duration of the playoffs, with Kunitz and Hagelin remaining as big question marks, are depleted of much of the scoring depth that helped propel them past the Capitals last season.  The Capitals are a heavy team, perhaps the heaviest in the Eastern Conference, and rely on dumping the puck into the zone and maintaining long possessions to score goals.  Letang counters that by getting the puck first and moving it out of the zone quickly to the Penguins fast forwards.  His loss will be the difference maker.  Hagelin of course led the team against the Capitals, scoring three goals including a game winner, and assisting on Bonino's OT winner which ended the series.  Forming one third of the best line in the playoffs last year, if he is unable to gear up, Hagelin's skating ability will badly be missed against a team that often looked bad in transition against a high-flying Maple Leafs roster.  Kunitz, having lost a step, is still effective on the forecheck, is tenacious in front of the net, and scored as many goals and assists in last year's matchup as Malkin and Crosby combined.  Depth scoring matters in the playoffs, and with the potential loss of these two, the Penguins will have their work cut out for them. 

Prediction: Washington in 6

(2) Ottawa Senators vs. (WC1) New York Rangers

Four years removed from posting the best save percentage in NHL history, and two years removed from the Hamburglar's incredible run, Craig Anderson is back where he belongs: backstopping an upstart Senators team in the playoffs.  Following an up-and-down season with an unprecedented amount of stress due to his wife's health issues, Anderson is seated firmly atop the goaltender depth chart.  Establishing consistency late in the year helped drive the Senators ahead of a team that showed flashes of brilliance, Anderson, having won 7 of his previous 9 starts, bested the hottest team outside of DC in dramatic fashion.  Driven by a dominating series at the hands of Erik Karlsson, the Senators took advantage of a stupid penalty - in overtime, off the puck - to put the Bruins away. 

This series may be partially overshadowed by the Zibanejad/Brassard trade, but the Rangers are playing for much more.  No team has played more post-season games since 2012 since the Rangers, who are leaning heavily on an aging and now often hurt Henrik Lundqvist.  After another amazing series against a top flight goaltender, it is clear that he still has a lot left to give.  The question is whether or not the team will give him another chance. 

New York was the best team on the road, and they will need to steal a game from Ottawa to have a chance. 

Prediction: New York in 7

Another year, another meltdown