Evgeny Kuznetsov traded to Carolina Hurricanes for 2025 3rd round pick

 We will always love the Bird Man. Keep smiling.

Capitals trade Anthony Mantha to Golden Knights for a bag of pucks

Sorry, for a bag of picks.

He gone.

What to do?

With the trade deadline looming, and the Capitals' playoff hopes fading, the Caps have to decide which fork to take. There are essentially three approaches: go all in for a playoff push (not the worst idea given how thin the East is); retool on the fly; or sell (there is a fourth approach, which is to strip down the roster, but given the team's relationship with Alex Ovechkin and his chase for the all-time goals record, it seems out of the question for the team to let go of legacy players like Oshie and Carlson. It seems clear that Ovechkin wants to have at least a couple of his teammates from the Cup team on the ice with him when he breaks the record. Wilson isn't going anywhere, and we assume Backstrom's playing days are behind him, but unless Ovechkin goes on a run, it's unlikely that Kuznetsov would be on the roster under any circumstances. It is also unlikely that Oshie would still be playing by that point, but it seems unthinkable to trade him unless he requested it. Thus leaving Carlson- more on him later.)

 

We at Contrarian Sports favor option three, selling. Not that this team isn't good enough to go on a run- with solid goaltending, which the team has gotten in spurts, this team is good enough to win the first two rounds, provided they line up in the Metropolitan side of the bracket. But with several players either at all-time high values and/or on expiring contracts, this is an opportunity to flood the cupboards. It is critical to strike the right balance, but we favor erring on the side of the future. 

Consider them gone:

 

Anthony Mantha: Mantha has struggled as a Capital, never approaching the cost the Capitals paid to land him on April 12, 2021. The later than usual trade deadline acquisition immediately hit oil, scoring goals in each of his first four games as a Cap. Unfortunately, those would be the only four goals he scored for the team that season, as the Caps were swiftly dispatched in the first round of the playoffs by the Boston. The next two seasons were a struggle, but motivated by a productive off-season, a rookie head coach, and entering a contract year after which he will be an unrestricted free agent for the first time, Mantha has stepped up in a big way, scoring 18 goals to date, his most since 2018-19, when he was a 24 year old on an upward trajectory. On pace for a career high of 26 goals, Mantha's selling price has never been higher (as a Capital, at least). Mantha has been linked to several teams who are also linked to Jake Guentzel. Maybe Guentzel sets the market. Maybe a team like Edmonton strikes early, following Vancouver, allowing more games before the playoffs to develop chemistry. We expect a high pick and a prospect coming back.

Max Pacioretty: The veteran forward has a no-movement clause, wherein he controls his destiny, but it is expected that a trade to a contender will be honored. The eye test says he's not been bad, and some of the advanced metrics support this, as the Caps have dominated with him on the ice, controlling 57.2% of the shots on goal, which is shockingly below his career average of 57.9%. Granted, Pacioretty is exclusively used in an offensive role and is given protected minutes, but he has always been respected for his defensive awareness. However, aside from losing a step to Father Time, Pacioretty looks slow, as expected, given that he is coming off of back-to-back career threatening Achilles tendon injuries. His speed and recent injury history are going to scare a lot of buyers, but with a depressed cap hit due to performance bonuses which have already been reached, a well-rounded team looking for depth scoring should come calling. We expect multiple mid-round picks.

Joel Edmundson: The gritty, Stanley Cup winning depth defenseman has a manageable cap hit that can be further lowered with salary retention. His injury history is always problematic, but he gets hurt because he sacrifices his body for the team. Every GM wants several of these guys. Here's one that comes cheap. The Caps paid a 3rd (originally Minnesota's; acquired for Marcus Johansson) and a 7th for Edmundson. With retention, we expect a similar return.

Flip a coin

 

Nic Dowd: The fourth line center has anchored the Caps' fourth line for six seasons now, consistently getting buried with some of the most difficult utilization league-wide (he has a ridiculous 88.2% defensive zone start, bested among NHL regulars only by his linemate, Beck Malenstyn). Yet Dowd has consistently risen to the challenge, scoring 117 points in 350 games as a Cap, managing 172 takeaways against 116 giveaways, landing 656 hits, blocking 274 shots, and winning 52.1% of his faceoffs. The 33 year old (his birthday is in May) is due just $1mm in cash next season, the last of his current three year, $3.9mm pact, throughout which Dowd has delivered surplus value. Nic has been one of the best signings in the Brian MacLellan era, and replacing his overproduction will be difficult. But with an eye to the future, we think it is worth trading Dowd now, as his value is unlikely to rise further, and with Mike Sgarbossa unlikely to leave the Capitals roster*, Dowd's immediate loss can be mitigated. We expect Dowd would fetch a first-rounder, this year or next.

Charlie Lindgren: Lindgren, like Dowd, has never seen his trade value higher, as he is also providing surplus value on a bargain contract. Lindgren's 3.32 GSAA (goals saved above average, an advanced metric akin to baseball's "WAR" statistic) rates 10th among goalies with 27 or fewer starts:

 

Lindgren sports a $1.1mm cap hit through next season, and though he is 30, he has low mileage, with a career high of 54 games played combined between the AHL and NHL, counting both regular season and playoffs, achieved back in 2016-17. Since then he has played in just 216 games across all formats. Plenty of teams are looking for goaltending help, and the chance to acquire a high end backup/split starter with some term and a manageable cap hit should not come cheap. We'd expect at least a first rounder coming back. If that doesn't materialize then the team should wait until the offseason to move Charlie; it may be that the goalie market is too gummed up with the uncertainty surrounding John Gibson, Jacob Markstrom, and Juuse Saros, among others, and the bigger dominoes need to fall first.

Nicolas Aube-Kubel: Head Coach Spencer Carbury spoke glowingly of NAK as being penciled into his fourth line. Aube-Kubel has fit in well, showing off high-end speed, great open-ice hitting ability, flashes of offensive playmaking skills, and the type of rugged, two-way play that led to him being drafted in the second round in 2014. The fourth line gets buried in its usage, with NAK starting 86.3% of the time in the d zone, the lowest percentage of his usual linemates. Still, the trio shines, though NAK's individual metrics are the worst of the bunch. No trade deadline shopping list is complete without some fourth line grit, and we thus expect NAK to have no shortage of suitors. Given that he has already cleared waivers this season, it seems unlikely that he nets much in return. On an expiring contract and with the Caps able to retain salary on his already manageable $1.225mm cap hit, we expect NAK to return one mid round pick or two late round picks, depending on retention.

Nick Jensen: Before his latest injury, from which he is expected to return tomorrow versus Philadelphia, Jensen had essentially locked down a spot on the second pair. However, with the multitude of injuries up front, it seems silly to continue to carry seven or eight healthy defensemen, scratching at least one young player almost every game (Alex Alexeyev and/or Ethan Bear). This is not a sustainable model- the team is neither developing its talent nor ripping through the league. What is the end game here? Four healthy right-handed defensemen usually means one sits: Carlson is untouchable, so the Caps have to sit one or Jensen, who makes $4.05mm against the cap, Trevor van Riemsdyk (TVR), who makes $3mm, or Ethan Bear, who has a backloaded contract counting $2.0625mm against the cap. Both Jensen and TVR signed their deals this past spring; Bear signed in December. It is a tough business, but the smart business decision is to free up one slot on the right side of the defense. His trade value may not be particularly high (or higher than TVR's), but Jensen's best attribute other than his handedness is his skating ability. Picking up two more years of a 33 year old's contract may not be ideal for a team looking to add at the deadline, but a younger team with an immediate need, like New Jersey, should keep him in mind. One or both of Jensen and/or TVR may also be moved in the offseason, when more teams should be looking to add. Either way, Jensen should land at least one mid round pick.

Maybe. Just maybe

 

Darcy Kuemper: Kuemper has winning pedigree, backstopping the Colorado Avalanche to a Stanley Cup win in 2022. Afterwards, he signed a reasonable contract with the Capitals, who were hoping to contend by shoring up what was erroneously thought to be the team's one weak point. Just over one and a half years in, he has arguably come as expected, though one would have hoped for a few stronger individual performances. However, the team's woes are not his fault, and it would be incorrect to attribute the team's struggles solely (or even largely) to Kuemper's play. Kuemper has a 15-team no trade clause, which shrinks to a 10-team list on June 1st, but as a 33 year old with three years remaining on a contract with decreasing cash due per year, a potential acquiring team has less to fear than they otherwise might for some of the other goalies who appear to be on the market. Kuemper comes with cost certainty, so for a team like Toronto or Edmonton, which have narrowly defined windows, there could be surplus value. Any trade for Kuemper would be complicated, but we expect either a skilled youthful player with upside, a high end prospect, or a first round pick, along with later picks, to be the starting point.

Rasmus Sandin: We have heard no rumors and do not wish to start any, but it may be appropriate for the Capitals to at least see the market for Sandin. Alexeyev has not looked particularly good, but given Sandin's totally manageable $1.4mm cap hit and pending RFA status, giving team control for the foreseeable future may be of great value to a team looking to add scoring to their second pair. Sandin is eligible for arbitration this season, but we don't see him commanding a huge pay raise; that could change for an acquiring team if he gels and the team finds success. Alexeyev has not looked particularly good this season, though sporadic usage may be a contributing factor, and Edmundson is likely out the door, so subtracting from the left side may not be the wisest decision. However, given Sandin's potential immediate value to a contending team, MacLellan may be able to bend the other GM over and extract a higher value. If he moves, we'd expect at least a first rounder and a good prospect coming back. Obviously, with salary retention an even better package could be negotiated.

Michael Sgarbossa: He cleared waivers earlier in the season, but given his success both in the AHL and NHL this year, it seems highly unlikely that he'd clear again (especially since Matthew Phillips was claimed, who is a winger with far less individual and team success than Sgarbossa, who is a center). Every team is always in the market for center depth, and we expect at least one team to call on Sgarbossa. A mid round pick would be a fair return, but we think it unwise to move on unless a team makes an offer MacLellan cannot refuse.

Doubt it, but a boy can dream

 

John Carlson: Longtime mainstay on the Capitals' backend, Carlson recently became the Capitals' defenseman with the second most goals scored all time. Carlson sits just four goals back of franchise leader Kevin Hatcher's 149 goals, and with his 985th game played on Tuesday against Detroit, became the franchise's all time leader in games played by a defenseman. One of the Cup winning legacy players Ovechkin may wish to keep around, Carlson has long sit at the point on the power play, feeding soft, crisp passes on a tee for Ovechkin's signature one-timer. Never strong in the defensive zone, the second-pair defenseman from the Cup team has struggled mightily in an increased role, eating ever more ice time as his offensive zone starts have increased. Carlson has been a paragon of reliability, with a freak accident being the only major injury to date in his career. Yet, at 34, Carlson has lost a step and is being caught out of position far more often, being no longer to rely on his foot speed and long reach to make up for positional errors. He is still a cornerstone player, one who would immediately improve any D corps to which he is assigned, but his contract is unfavorable. With two more years remaining at $8mm per, it would be a huge relief for the Caps to rid themselves of Carlson, but the cost is nearly prohibitive. If this happens, it's most likely an offseason deal, but the Oilers should be all-in (and Carlson would look swell on that power play). We'd love to see a foundational package in return, including at least one first rounder and at least one high end defensive prospect.